Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the finacnial markets, the eurozone and business.
Global stock markets are in freefall again today as investors are gripped with anxiety that the coronavirus will trigger a global recession.
Last night the UK, European and US stock markets all fell into corrections, more than 10% below their peak. The Dow Jones suffering its worst points fall ever – shedding nearly 1,200 points in a heavy, panicky wave of selling (its worst percentage fall in two years).
Further heavy losses are expected today in Europe, with the FTSE 100 called down another 3%, or 210 points, to around 6575 points. That would take its weekly losses to over 1,000 points, the worst week since the financial crisis a decade ago.
Other European markets are also facing another day of wild swings, with France and Germany both called down 3%.
There have already been further heavy falls in Asia today, as traders respond to the news that Covid-19 has now been detected in Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania for the first time.
There have also been a further 44 deaths in China, and 327 new cases, plus another 256 cases in South Korea as the human cost of the coronavirus mounts.
Here’s the situation in Asia:
- The Nikkei has closed down 3.67% in Tokyo
- In Sydney the ASX200 finished off 3.2%.
- The Kospi ended 3.6% worse off.
- Hang Seng currently down 2.65%
- Shanghai down 2.95%
Oil is also under pressure, dropping another 3% to fresh one-year lows.
The scale of the market plunge is truly shocking, as investors brace for a global pandemic:
The markets are “fluttering between risk aversion and full-on capitulation”, says Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp.
The full impact of the outbreak is still unclear. But if schools and offices around the globe are forced to close, and if Chinese factories struggle to reopen, then there will be a massive impact on growth.
But such a gloomy scenario could be avoided. As Richard Clode of asset managers Janus Henderson puts it:
A worst case scenario of a global pandemic would undoubtedly have a significant economic impact and given the fragile nature of the global economy could tip the world into recession.
For now that remains a low probability outcome and our on the ground reports from an assortment of technology companies in China give us confidence that with the right measures in place the virus could potentially be contained.
We’ll be tracking all the market action through the day. We’ll also be watching the latest US trade and consumer confidence data, plus Canada will become the final G7 country to report growth figures for the last quarter.
The agenda
- 1.30pm GMT: Canadian GDP for Q4 2019
- 1.30pm GMT: US trade
- 3pm GMT: University of Michigan survey of US consumer confidence