Will we finally find out how Brexit will happen this week?
Out of all the difficult weeks faced by Theresa May, this one looks to be the trickiest yet. She will most likely have another go at getting her meaningful vote through parliament on Tuesday, if the speaker allows it. If it fails, MPs will most likely attempt to force a softer Brexit with a customs union – potentially trying to make it enforceable through legislation as soon as Wednesday.
Is Theresa May’s deal dead?
It is almost dead but not quite. The prime minister is still hopeful that more Conservatives and even the DUP could be induced to back it for fear of the alternative – a general election at a time when polls show Jeremy Corbyn is within grasp of Downing Street. There will be a huge effort by No 10 to pitch the vote as one between May’s deal and a softer Brexit or potentially a general election. However, she needs at
least 30 Conservative, DUP or Labour MPs to come on board to avoid plunging the government into an unprecedented paralysis.
Will parliament seize control?
MPs failed to find a consensus for a form of Brexit they could tolerate last week but that was when there were many different options on the table and the cabinet abstained. On Monday, they will try again to find a majority for a Brexit with a customs union, possibly with second confirmatory referendum tacked on to it, once the choices are narrowed down. The vote could be swung if the SNP decide to get behind a soft Brexit rather than sticking to their preference for another referendum. If May’s deal fails and MPs reach a verdict, they could seek to start passing legislation to make it legally binding on Wednesday, meaning there is a chance the government would have to go back to Brussels to renegotiate. This would trigger a crisis in the
Conservative party, with a majority of its MPs preferring no deal to a softer Brexit.
Is no deal finally off the table?
It depends if MPs can legislate for another option. If not, May could simply run down the clock until April 12, which would please the 170-plus Conservative MPs – more than half the party – who urged her in a letter to take this course. However, David Gauke, her justice secretary, said on Sunday that was not an option she was prepared to take and it would spark cabinet walkouts from soft Brexit ministers, potentially causing her government to fall.
Will there be a general election?
No 10 is threatening this as an option if May’s deal fails and there is no consensus among MPs. However, parliament would have to vote for it first by a two thirds majority and this is little appetite for this among Conservatives given their plunge in the polls this week. It could also happen if there was a successful no-confidence motion in the government, but there would first be a 14 day period during which MPs would scrabble to see if they can put together an alternative government.
What about a government of national unity to sort everything out?
It seems unlikely as Labour has ruled this out. The party would rather opt for a general election.
Could a decision be postponed yet again?
Maybe. If May’s deal fails for a fourth time and MPs cannot find a solution, she may simply announce that she is heading back to Brussels to try to negotiate a longer extension to article 50 that would involve participating in European elections. She has said she would not want to preside over a long delay to leaving the EU as prime
minister and it is almost certain that another Conservative leader would have to take over to “reset” Brexit policy and take the government down a different path in this scenario. The hitch is that the EU would have to see that the UK has a “purpose” such as a second referendum or election planned in order to grant an extension.
Will May still be prime minister on Friday?
It is certainly possible that she might not survive the week in No 10 – either because of a mass rebellion within her party or she finally feels like she has come to the end of the road as leader. On the other hand, some in No 10 are still convinced that she has the fight in her to attempt to call another general election, so she might once again demonstrate her staying power.
