The US and UK both have weaknesses in their healthcare systems which could trigger a collapse if the two countries experience the kind of severe coronavirus outbreak similar to Italy, a Financial Times analysis has found.
Both countries have fewer hospital beds per capita than most other western nations, the analysis shows. While the US and UK have around 2 beds per 1,000 people, Germany, by comparison has 6, while Japan has 7.8, according to the OECD.
The US also lags on the number of doctors for its population, with 2.6 per 1,000 people. That compares with 4.3 in Germany and 4 in Italy, where hospitals have had to erect inflatable tents in their grounds and patients crowd the corridors.
“The US has excellent diagnostic capabilities, but where it really falls short is on access to healthcare, especially for healthcare workers themselves,” said Jessica Bell, who helps compile a global health security index for the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a non-profit that works on catastrophe prevention.
Healthcare workers are beginning to sound the alarm. Hospitals in the US are already quite full because of flu season. Capacity issues are being compounded by an influx of coronavirus cases. “Already we are hearing of nurses having to fight to get the respirators they need — though the biggest worry is what happens when those nurses start getting sick,” said David Pratt, health and safety representative at the New York State Nurses Association.
Japan, Germany and Italy may have the most capacity in their healthcare systems, but they also have the oldest populations in the world. This puts them in a uniquely vulnerable position, as statistics suggest that people over 70 are the most likely to suffer severe complications from coronavirus. Some 28 per cent of Japan’s population is aged over 65, as is 22 per cent of Germany’s.
One main area of concern in the US, say experts, is patchy insurance coverage. Almost 18m Americans did not have insurance in 2018, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, and many of those with coverage could struggle to pay their own contributions towards expensive treatments.
US insurers have agreed to cover the costs of testing, but it could still cost an uninsured person thousands of dollars a day if they are hospitalised with the disease.
The analysis also shows which countries are more likely to suffer economically. The World Travel and Tourism Council said on Friday that up to 50m jobs in the sector are now at risk as borders close and governments restrict movement.
“Services, in particular those related to tourism and to non-core consumption, will suffer a massive hit,” said Nicola Nobile, an economist at Oxford Economics.
The US, with its diversified economy, is less reliant on tourism than many other rich countries, accounting for only 8 per cent of gross domestic product.
But in Italy, tourism generates 13 per cent of GDP, the second highest proportion in the G20 after Mexico. Thailand is highly susceptible to a crash in visitor numbers, with nearly a quarter of its economy reliant on travel and tourism. Arrivals into the country more than halved in February compared to last year, according to data from the Thai Association of travel agents.
Economists warn that people working from home while juggling childcare might turn out to be an additional drag on the economy.
The closure of schools is likely to be most disruptive in countries such as Finland, Denmark and Sweden, where nearly all children under 12 years old are in some form of formal childcare that will close down — whether provided by the state or by a private company. The impact may be mitigated by parents who benefit from a more common culture of remote working than in peer countries.
Overall, economists warn that places with weaker social security systems are likely to feel the strain sooner, whether they are poorer countries or countries like the US which have a smaller welfare state.
“In the US about 15m people, or around 10 per cent of total employment, work in alternative work arrangements as contractors, on-call workers, and temp help agency workers,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said. “Countries without paid sick leave and without social safety nets are likely to be hit harder.”
