The government’s “comprehensive” plan to prepare the country for a no-deal Brexit has been released.
The 159-page document could be seen as part of a bid to demonstrate to voters, and also to EU leaders, that the country is ready for no deal.
The report, created after two months of no-deal preparations accelerated and intensified after Boris Johnson became the prime minister, offers a one-stop summary of the impact of crashing out of the EU on trade, immigration, Northern Ireland and many other issues.
It also reveals new detail on what the government plans for the Irish border and employing EU citizens after 31 October.
Northern Ireland
The government discloses it will operate a “no new checks with limited exceptions” policy on the Irish border in the event of no deal.
It says it will introduce “necessary changes in legislation” before 31 October to apply the new approach, but it does not give details on what the limited exceptions could be.
It recognises the policy involves “significant risks” as it is “temporary in nature and unilateral”.
It says the UK will “look to engage with the Irish government and the EU as soon as possible following Brexit”.
The report is conspicuously light on detail for farmers and other small businesses, which rely heavily on moving animals, agri-food and other goods across the border into Ireland.
In the worst possible scenario, dairy producers on the south of the border would be banned by the EU from accepting milk from cows on the other side of the border, putting many farms out of business. The report does not explore this or similar challenges.
It merely states: “EU tariff and non-tariff requirements will apply to UK exports crossing the land border from Northern Ireland into Ireland, and exporters will need to ensure that they comply with these requirements.”
And it restates the policy, outlined by Theresa May in March, that tariffs will not be applied to any goods entering Northern Ireland from Ireland.
It also reconfirms its commitment to the common travel area, allowing British and Irish citizens to enjoy equal rights on both islands “even in the event of leaving without a deal”.
People holding a UK driving licence will need a motor insurance green card if they are taking a UK-registered vehicle into Ireland, something that will impact on the thousands of Irish-heritage families in Britain who spend their holidays in the Republic.
People living in border areas might incur roaming charges on their mobile phone bills, something that was done away with several years ago as part of an all-island telecommunications policy.
EU citizens currently in the UK
The report says Brexit will end free movement of people, allowing the government to “boost the labour market” through a “fairer immigration system” based on skills and talent.
It restates its commitment to EU citizens who “will continue to be able to work, study and access benefits and services such as the NHS” on the same basis after 31 October.
EU citizens wishing to remain in the country have until 31 December 2020 to apply for settled status.
Some 1.5 million EU citizens have already been granted settled status and 1.7 million have already applied.
EU citizens entering the UK after 31 October
A new scheme, called European temporary leave to remain, will be introduced for EU citizens who want to settle in the UK after 31 October.
From January 2021 the government will introduce an Australian-style points based system that will apply to all EU citizens newly entering the country.
“EU citizens moving to the UK if we leave without a deal on 31 October 2019 will be able to work, study and access benefits and services in the same way as EU citizens resident before exit day.
“However, to remain in the UK after 2020 they will be able to apply for European Temporary Leave to Remain (Euro TLR) which will last three years,” it says.
The paper makes it plain that employers will be expected to look to employ and train up workers locally.
EU citizens visiting the UK after Brexit may have to get health insurance if current reciprocal arrangements, through the European health insurance card, do not survive after Brexit.
There are also clear instructions for employers.
Up to 2021 employers will not need to distinguish between EU citizens with settled status and those without, or to distinguish between EU citizens who are already entitled to live in the country and new arrivals.
“In the interim, EU citizens will be able to evidence their right to live and work in the UK by using valid EU passport or national identity card, as now.”
Border
Planes will continue to fly.
But trains and coach journeys may be impacted.
Trade
Trade will be heavily impacted.
In a no-deal scenario, the UK and the EU will trade on World Trade Organization terms. For the first time in 50 years the UK will be able to “articulate” its “own voice” in the WTO and set its own tariffs, the report claims.
Exporters to the EU should check the additional paperwork required by the EU and ensure they are ready.
Hauliers should explain to drivers that a customs export declaration (P2P) must be completed before they will be allowed to progress on a ferry journey to the EU. The driver should check with the trader that the goods have received the P2P from HMRC before going across the border.
Those in the fishing industry will need to fill out catch certificates for all exports and potentially three other additional documents to fulfil EU laws.
Hauliers can refer to a checklist of must-dos provided by the government.
The chapter also runs through the many other requirements, such as the £10 permit required by UK hauliers on export routes, and challenges that could disrupt cross-border trains and coach services.
Importers will need to pay tariffs on a range of goods including meat, dairy produce and clothing. The government finalised its tariff schedule on Tuesday 8 October with just three changes to the tariff schedule published in March.
Exporters will also face hefty tariffs overnight for goods sold in the EU and to other countries where there is no deal. In a no-deal Brexit this will include the 52 countries which already have a deal with the EU.
The paper says the government “is working intensively to deliver continuity” on EU trade but warns that the EU’s common external tariff will apply on 60% of the UK’s exports to the EU.
In some sectors such as life sciences and electronics, the effect of these taxes will be “minor” but, in what farmers will consider an understatement, it says “other sectors will be more affected” with, for example, tariffs of 65% on boneless beef and 53% on fresh bone-in lamb.
Services
UK companies and British citizens living in the EU who rely solely on EU rights to work, will no longer be able to provide services on the same terms in the event of no deal.
In practice this means companies exporting services, which have not established a legal entity elsewhere in the bloc, will not be able to continue to do so.
For Britons living in the EU who trade services such as accountancy, translation services and architecture will not be able to continue to do so outside the country of their residence unless they have acquired such a right through alternative routes such as citizenship.
Data
Anyone trading or storing data in the EU faces immediate consequences in a no deal.
This includes police, hotels, businesses, social media companies, transport and tech companies.
The report states that the government intends to bring the General Data Protection Regulation that governs data in the EU into domestic law.
But as this will not happen overnight and the EU is not making an exception. “Organisations receiving personal data from the EU/EEA need to make alternative legal arrangements,” it says.
The government is continuing to press for the EU to change its mind and grant the UK an exemption if Britain leaves without a deal, the report adds.
