Peter Gibson is content. With a few days left until Britain goes to the polls, the Conservative candidate for Darlington thinks he has done “everything possible” to turn this northern town blue for the first time in three decades — assisted by Brexit and negative perceptions of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
“The doorstep conversations haven’t changed one iota since the beginning of the campaign. The resolve of people to vote against Corbyn has hardened,” said Mr Gibson.
However, the 44-year-old thought that even if Labour loses Darlington it does not mean voters have abandoned the party for good.
“People are lending us their vote — you wouldn’t call all these people voting for us Tories by any means. We will have to prove they were right to trust us.”
Darlington is typical of the “red wall” constituencies the Tories must win to form a majority government in Thursday’s UK general election — seats that economically and demographically might be considered conservative but which have typically elected Labour MPs.
In the 2017 general election Labour won a slim majority of 3,280 here but 58 per cent of the constituency’s electorate voted to leave the EU in the Brexit referendum a year earlier, according to an analysis by Chris Hanretty from Royal Holloway, University of London.
With Brexit demolishing old loyalties, the Conservatives are optimistic that swaths of seats in the north of England, Midlands and Wales might support the party, some for the first time. According to a model of the electorate by YouGov, another polling firm, three such seats in the north east of England could switch to the Tories: Darlington, Bishop Auckland and Stockton South. A fourth, Sedgefield, is too close to call.
Bishop Auckland has never returned a Tory MP. With a Labour majority of 502 and 60 per cent of its voters backing Brexit in 2016, it is a prime Tory target. The party has thrown high profile campaigners, money and resources at the seat in the hope of delivering a historic result.
Dehenna Davison, the 26-year-old Conservative candidate, said that a “local desire for change” has boosted her chances. Her campaign has been dominated by local issues — notably reopening a local hospital’s emergency unit — but also Brexit and Mr Corbyn’s personality.
“The campaign has got better and better. We have been waiting to see if the bubble would burst like in 2017, but it hasn’t. A lot of people have been undecided but they seem to be breaking to us,” she said.
On the doorsteps of the village of West Auckland, voters sometimes speak as if they have been handed a script by Conservative central office — repeating the party’s slogans about getting Brexit done and Mr Johnson’s “oven-ready deal”. Very few voters could name a policy from either manifesto or anything that had happened during the campaign.
David Hamilton, a retired marine engineer, said he was a typical life-long Labour supporter. “I will vote Conservative purely because I want us out of the EU. Labour is in total disarray. I don’t think anybody in this country likes Jeremy Corbyn or his politics.” But he added: “I have no particular love of Boris Johnson or any politicians.”
Yet Labour remains a potent force in Bishop Auckland. On the Monday before election day, Mr Johnson was due to drop by the market town of Barnard Castle for a photo opportunity at the butcher’s shop. Yet a manifestation of the red wall emerged: 30 vocal Labour activists congregated with red posters, dogs and rosettes. The prime ministerial visit was abruptly called off due to security fears.
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Helen Goodman, the incumbent Labour candidate, said her rivals had run a “fantastical” campaign and insisted that she has not given up. “There’s still everything to play for,” the 61-year-old said.
Stockton South is another typical red wall constituency: Labour won the seat with 888 votes at the last election, but 57 per cent of its electorate voted to leave the EU. Campaigning in the small town of Eaglescliffe, Labour’s incumbent Paul Williams is betting on his local reputation.
“People are very, very positive about me. People can see I’m genuine. I have worked hard for our local area. I have focused on things that are important to local people,” he said. “Two big things on the negative side — Corbyn and Brexit. I commonly hear, you are the best MP we’ve ever had but . . ”
Matt Vickers, his 36-year-old Tory rival, said the experiences mirror the other red wall seats. “The dialogue hasn’t changed: it’s Corbyn and Brexit all the way.” Although the Conservatives held the seat from 2010 to 2017, he is hopeful of winning over new voters. “We’re still seeing people who have never voted Conservative before backing us.”
Stockton South has seen a more aggressive campaign than in other red wall seats. Mr Vickers has had his signs defaced with “liar” and he was physically abused by a Labour supporter in the village of Ingleby Barwick. “The police were involved but it does worry me for the younger and older canvassers,” Mr Vickers added.
Conservative strategists are concerned that undecided Labour voters could hold their noses and still vote for the party. Other senior figures are more upbeat. “The country has decided it doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing Street. It’s just a case of where the votes now fall,” said one minister.
Some Labour candidates in red wall seats have concluded that a national victory for the party is improbable and the Conservatives may be on course for a majority, based on what has been said on their doorsteps. “Either our vote holds up and it’ll be a small Tory majority or a hung parliament or the whole red wall collapses and it is game over,” says one Labour candidate. “I’m fearing it is going to be the latter.”
Photographs by Charlie Bibby/FT
Tories eye Tony Blair’s old Sedgefield seat
One of the greatest prizes for Boris Johnson would be winning Sedgefield, the north eastern constituency represented by Tony Blair for almost a quarter of a century. It last elected a Tory MP in 1931 and, according to YouGov, it is currently too close to call.
Some voters feel the Labour party has left them. Ann Harrison, a retired nurse and daughter of a Durham miner, will not be voting Labour for the first time. “The Labour party as a whole, it stinks. It’s Corbyn and the way he wants to move the country — that’s not right. They’re promising the earth but where is the funding going to come from?” She has reluctantly spoiled her postal ballot paper.
Other Sedgefield residents feel disenfranchised by politics. Gwen Walker, a 50-year-old shop assistant, said “they never fulfil their promises” and is undecided about how to vote. She greatly dislikes the prime minister. “He’s a horrible man. It’s his attitude. He thinks he is one of the big people; we are the little people.”
Local Tories described Sedgefield as “a seat of interest”, but hinted it was not a priority for this campaign. “We are not making the mistake of 2017, when we spread ourselves too thin in seats that are too difficult to win,” said one Conservative candidate. But if there is a major national swing against Labour, Sedgefield may be swept up in the blue tide.
