Star Wars forecast to make 2019 all-time record year for UK box office

The UK cinema industry is banking on the final instalment in the Star Wars saga to set new highs for ticket sales and revenues in 2019, despite the onward march of Netflix.

Last year proved to be the best for cinema-going since 1970, a year featuring classic hits including French Connection and Bond film Diamonds are Forever, with admissions hitting 177m despite the lack of a Star Wars Christmas blockbuster. If this number is passed this year then the UK is also on for a box office sales bonanza as well, beating the all-time record of just under £1.3bn set in 2017.

Film experts believe both marks could be bettered thanks to a strong December slate including Jumanji: The Next Level and Cats, starring James Corden and Taylor Swift. But it is Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, the last film in a franchise that started more than four decades ago, which will ultimately decide the fate of the British box office this year.

Admissions this month will need to surpass 16m, and perhaps even reach 17m or more, to pass the 177m target – while setting a new revenue record at the same time. History indicates that in each year there has been a Star Wars film in the run-up to Christmas, admissions have beaten this mark. In 2015, The Force Awakens propelled attendances to 18.5m, and 2017’s The Last Jedi drove December admissions to 17.2m. This year’s instalment is out on 19 December.

“It looks like we have a shot at another incredible year,” says Tim Richards, chief executive and founder of cinema chain Vue. “I think we are going to be very close. While there is Jumanji and Cats this is a Star Wars year and right now it looks like it is going to be huge globally.”

This year may prove to be peak cinema for blockbusters with a record nine films likely to have made $1bn-plus at the global box office. Seven films have already done so: Avengers: Endgame, which passed Avatar to become the biggest grossing film of all-time at $2.8bn; The Lion King; Spider-Man: Far from Home; Captain Marvel; Toy Story 4; Aladdin; and Joker. The record-setting Frozen 2 is set to join the club in the next week and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is expected to follow suit.

Star Wars 9: The Rise of Skywalker final trailer – video

Cinema-owners have not missed the opportunity to cash in, investing heavily in the viewing experience from sound and special effects to leather reclining seats, sofas and restaurant menus.

“Vue and competitors have been upgrading cinemas very materially, everything from the physical experience to booking systems online and through apps. It is all helping to drive the box office and attendance,” said Vue’s Richards.

Netflix is experiencing a hot awards season run racking up almost double the number of Golden Globe nominations than the nearest Hollywood studio for films including Marriage Story, The Irishman and The Two Popes. Netflix tends to put its award-worthy films in as few cinemas as possible, to meet minimum eligibility requirements, preferring instead to make all content available directly first to its 160m global subscribers.

Richards said that the strong cinema figures show that the Netflix model is not killing traditional cinema, that movie fans still enjoy getting out of the house in huge numbers.

“The future is going to be two platforms, at home with subscription TV and streaming services and out of home with the big screen theatrical experience,” said Richards. “They will co-exist together.”

disney shares

Peak Disney?

Disney owns the movies, rivals are just watching. The owner of franchises including Star Wars, Pixar films from Toy Story to The Incredibles, the blockbuster Marvel universe and classic fare from Frozen to Lion King is having a year that may never be repeated. The studio smashed its own record for annual global box office sales way back in July, and has since become the first Hollywood studio in history to make more than $10bn in a year. And it is set to add potentially a few billion more to that yet.

Disney’s utter and complete domination of the industry is simply staggering.

“What Disney has been able to accomplish at the box office this year is like Halley’s Comet – something we might not see again for 75 years, or maybe longer,” says Jeff Bock, senior box office analyst at Exhibitor Relations.

“Their utter and complete domination of the industry is simply staggering and this accomplishment, in the midst of the war for eyeballs with streaming entities, is especially impressive.”

Seven of the record nine films released this year that are expected to end their run taking in $1bn-plus: Avengers: Endgame; The Lion King; Captain Marvel; Toy Story 4 Aladdin; Frozen 2 and Star Wars are all Disney films.

Comscore estimates that the Star Wars franchise has taken more than $9bn since the first film debuted in 1977. And the 23 films that make up the Marvel franchise have so far grossed $22.5bn.

However, with both those franchises reaching the end of a cycle, the movie industry has reached peak-Disney, for now at least. Next year’s release slate doesn’t have the strength to deliver another record, and Disney is also now shifting some focus to making its global streaming service, Disney+, a success. New Marvel and Star Wars projects, such as the flagship $100m The Mandalorian TV series, have been commissioned specifically for streaming.

“Disney is a true cinematic force of nature,” says Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore. “We are truly witnessing a historic peak in terms of box office which may take years for any studio, including Disney, to replicate.”

Top 10 grossing films in the UK and Ireland up to 8 October