It can often feel as though Ivan Toney’s entrance into a game ought to be accompanied by a drum roll. The Brentford striker fizzes with showman energy, supreme self‑confidence. The only surprise, as Toney looked ahead to England’s Wembley friendly with Belgium on Tuesday night, was the identity of the man getting the sticks out to provide it.
Gareth Southgate is not given to revealing the details of his lineup, although he is hardly alone among his peers in this regard. But the England manager has made it clear that Toney will play against Belgium. On one level, it is not a shock. Harry Kane is out with an ankle problem and Ollie Watkins played the full 90 minutes in the 1-0 Wembley defeat against Brazil on Saturday.
It is surely Toney v Watkins for the back-up role to Kane at Euro 2024; Southgate is unlikely to name three specialist No 9s in his 23-man squad. The other main contender, Callum Wilson, is a long-term injury casualty. And so after Watkins against Brazil – another unconvincing audition after he was peripheral in the 1-1 draw with North Macedonia in Skopje in November – it was anticipated that Toney would get the nod.
Yet it was how Southgate framed it – not just the advance notice; the talking up of the opportunity and what was at stake. It amounted to the laying down of a challenge which, you suspect, is precisely how Toney likes it. “You can’t hide that fact,” Southgate said, when he was asked how big Tuesday was for Toney.
“He knows. It would be his first start so you’ve got to bear that in mind, as well.
“But with England, that’s the landscape. You don’t get hundreds of opportunities. I think every player recognises that’s the world we live in. He’s a confident guy, he comes in on the back of a good run of form with his club. He’s going to be on the field on Tuesday, no question.”
Does Southgate like Toney’s confidence? “Yeah, it’s crucial, especially for forward players,” he said. “That swagger, that self‑belief. All of the top forward players have it.”
Toney has four goals in 10 games for Brentford since his high‑profile return on 20 January from his eight-month ban for breaking the Football Association’s betting rules. If this is a part of the reason why he has only one England cap – as an 81st-minute substitute against Ukraine at Wembley in March of last year – it adds background beats to his involvement against Belgium.
Toney has made no secret of his unhappiness at the FA over the saga. He has spoken about his devastation at how “they” had “decided to bring it all out” in November 2022, just before Southgate named his squad for the Qatar World Cup.
It should be said that the story about Toney being investigated for betting breaches was actually broken by a newspaper; it was hardly an FA press release and, at that point, he had not been charged. But Toney felt the revelation made it impossible for Southgate to pick him, which he did not, and it was a harsher punishment than his eventual suspension, which was not confirmed until May.
Southgate said on the Thursday before last that Toney needed to park any negative thoughts he may have towards the FA and the issue at hand is also sensitive as it speaks to England’s worst fear – losing Kane before or during the European Championship.
It is sometimes said that being the captain’s understudy is a thankless job and it is certainly not one Southgate wants to see pressed into active service. But Kane is injured now, after a collision with the frame of the goal in Bayern Munich’s win at Darmstadt on 16 March, and there is always the possibility that he could be again, despite his excellent fitness record in recent seasons.
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Southgate talked after the Brazil game of other worries, how it had been a “bizarre camp” because of various factors. He said he had to substitute Ben Chilwell and Harry Maguire as he managed their minutes after both returned from injury only the previous weekend. Jude Bellingham had to come off after cramping up; he has played only twice for Real Madrid since 10 February because of an ankle issue and suspension. Kyle Walker also made an early exit after feeling his hamstring. Both Walker and Maguire have now left the camp due to injury, along with back-up goalkeeper Sam Johnstone.
Luke Shaw’s long-term hamstring injury is a massive concern, while Southgate could not disguise his frustration at the knee problem that has deprived him of Trent Alexander‑Arnold. He had wanted to try the Liverpool player in midfield against Brazil and/or Belgium, having done so previously only against lower‑ranked opposition.
Southgate likes the idea of Alexander-Arnold in midfield and he probably does so even more in the wake of Kalvin Phillips’s loss of form, which has seen him left out of the squad. Southgate considers Alexander‑Arnold as more of a right-sided No 8, which raises the question as to how he might work with Bellingham, who the manager has come to play as a No 10 this season.
One thing is plain. We will not know before Southgate names his training squad for the European Championship. And the unknown equates to risk.
“We missed two opportunities in September [when Alexander‑Arnold was injured for the away games against Ukraine and Scotland] and now this, which is really frustrating because there’s so much that’s unknown about it,” Southgate said.
“I’ve liked the idea for a long time but we’re going to be trialling it when we haven’t seen it in a really high level game. We’ll just have to see where we can go with it.”
