In the annals of aviation, Short Brothers can claim a place among industry pioneers.
The UK engineering company built early aircraft designed by Wilbur and Orville Wright and gained fame for flying boats that served in the second world war, before moving its main base from Kent to Northern Ireland.
Today, the Belfast-based business faces a new and uncertain chapter in its history after it was put up for sale by its Canadian owner, the train and plane manufacturer Bombardier.
The decision has put jobs on the line at one of the province’s largest private sector employers, with a workforce of 3,600 and up to twice as many among suppliers and neighbourhood businesses sustained by custom from staff and their families. It has also cast a shadow over the future of a key UK industrial asset that is a pillar of the aerospace sector.
As hundreds of workers came off shift on Friday from the vast Bombardier plant at Airport Road in Belfast, one of five sites in the province, the mood was sombre.
“I think we knew there was something coming,” said Harry Watt, a 30-year veteran of the business.
“Most of us are optimistic that things are going to get better and that somebody is going to look after it and come in. There’s a good bunch of lads in there. The skills are there — and it would be a shame if the company does go.”
The stakes are also high for Prime Minister Theresa May, whose Conservative party relies on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party — which has strongholds in areas where Bombardier has plants — for a majority in the UK parliament.
At a time when Brexit has caused paralysis in other policy areas, Mrs May will be keen to avoid damage to a key party initiative: an “industrial strategy” aimed at promoting skilled jobs and high-value manufacturing.
Bombardier’s decision was part of a move to rationalise its aerostructures manufacturing to sites in Canada, the US and Mexico. It is focusing on business jets and rail under a turnround plan and has hired Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse to advise on the Northern Ireland sales process
For workers in Belfast, which produces wings, fuselages and other aircraft components for a range of customers, the announcement follows years of turmoil, including swingeing job cuts, Brexit uncertainty and threats by US President Donald Trump to slap punitive tariffs on planes containing its parts.
Bombardier’s headcount in Northern Ireland has fallen from more than 5,000 a few years go to today’s 3,600 after cost-reduction programmes.
The company has struggled with debt and was almost pushed into bankruptcy in 2015 by the money-draining C Series jetliner programme — its attempt to break Boeing and Airbus’ stranglehold over the market for single-aisle commercial jets.
A lifeline came from Airbus, when the European aircraft maker rescued the project in 2017, buying a majority stake for C$1, renaming it the A220 and preserving jobs in Belfast.
Wing production for the A220 is set to run in Northern Ireland for at least two decades and it is unlikely Airbus would look to source it elsewhere, said Nick Cunningham, analyst at Agency Partners. “There’s no sword of Damocles hanging over [Belfast],” he added.
While any immediate closures or job cuts are unlikely, the question for workers is whether the next owner will invest enough to secure long-term prosperity.
The Northern Ireland operation was described as a “prized asset” that could fetch up to $1bn by analysts at JPMorgan. While the A220 programme is a very significant contract, it also builds components for Bombardier and other manufacturers.
Among those touted as potential buyers are US-based Spirit AeroSystems, which has said it will look for acquisitions to diversify its business away from Boeing and its 737 Max that is grounded following two crashes. The company told the FT it did not comment on market speculation.
Another is GKN, the UK aerospace and automotive parts supplier that was the subject of a £8bn hostile takeover by Melrose Industries last year. With its own expertise in wings and fuselage, GKN could present a logical fit.
“It would be perfectly natural for [Melrose] to look at it,” said one banker in the sector. However, others doubt that it would have the appetite given it is implementing a turnround at GKN. Melrose declined to comment.
Other names include US aerospace group Triumph while Aernnova, a Spanish aerostructures company backed by private equity group TowerBrook, is seen as another potential candidate. Neither replied to requests for comment.
One attraction for a potential buyer is the proprietary technology Bombardier uses in the wing manufacturing process, which was developed in Northern Ireland partly with public financial support.
Airbus uses a different process to build the wings for its A350 and A400m aircraft.
“Airbus needs the plant to remain open but I can’t see why they would want to buy it,” said one industry consultant
Brexit remains a concern. Airbus, which makes the wings for its commercial aircraft in the UK, has warned it could be forced to move the work elsewhere if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.
Stephen Kelly, chief executive of lobby group Manufacturing NI, said it was “critical” for the government to provide clarity on Brexit and push for restoration of the devolved power-sharing administration after a two year hiatus.
“The first thing that any potential investor will look at is: is their money safe?” he said. “I don’t think anybody looking from outside could say that we have a stable political environment in Northern Ireland or indeed across the UK.”
