Difficult and costly choices will have to be made to fulfil Scotland’s future energy requirements, according to a major new study.
The inquiry by the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland’s national academy, concluded that no energy policy however well considered will be able to solve all the issues without those tough choices being made.
The report Scotland’s Energy Future warned that there are no easy options and all decisions will require compromise and trade-offs, each with significant consequences.
But the report said the challenges present an opportunity for Scotland to explore and develop world-leading, innovative solutions.
The report sets out the significant challenges faced by Scotland, and the rest of the world, as it looks to continue to produce the energy it requires, while attempting to meet its carbon reduction targets.
Even under the most ambitious of plans to reduce demand and use energy more efficiently, the report says Scotland will need energy for heat, transport and electricity and a decision must be made on how this will be sourced.
The expected major increase in demand for electricity, coupled with Scotland’s electricity generating capacity decreasing due to the closures, and planned closures, of various power stations serves to make the issue more pressing.
The advantages and drawbacks of the options available to Scotland have been explored by the inquiry and highlight that emerging low-carbon technologies, which are required to meet important carbon reduction targets, may be the preferred solutions, but are likely to be significantly more expensive in the short-term than current methods.
For example, carbon capture and storage (CCS) coupled with hydrogen production as a heat source could limit damage to the climate,. But would require a high level of investment; a rapid move towards transport and heat electrification may require more than doubling Scotland’s electricity generating capacity and substantial new infrastructure
While wind energy (offshore and onshore) can play a significant role in meeting increased demand and reducing emissions, its variable nature means another form of generation, or significant investments in energy storage, would likely be required in tandem, the report concluded.
Policy makers are being urged to consider all options and how best to meet the competing issues of addressing climate change, ensuring affordability, safeguarding security of supply, and developing policy that is socially acceptable and economically sustainable.
As a result, the RSE has cautioned that all compromises and consequences must be fully understood, discussed and accepted in order to achieve an informed decision on Scotland’s energy future, and advised that government must rely on robust scientific evidence when developing and implementing energy policy.
To this end, the report recommends the establishment of an independent, expert advisory commission on energy for Scotland which could consider all aspects of energy policy.
Other recommendations include: the need for timely and well-considered decisions by Scottish and UK governments on how and in what to invest; prioritisation of climate protection targets; investment in new low-carbon energy generating capacity; a reduction in the demand for energy; and improved standards for lowering the net energy consumption of housing and infrastructure that are enforced and regularly updated.
The RSE also calls on the Scottish and UK governments to improve political cooperation to ensure robust and sustainable energy policy can be developed and implemented.
Sir Muir Russell, inquiry chair, said: “Energy is a highly complex area of policy.
“The reality is that no energy policy will ever solve all the problems and paradoxes of energy supply and use. However, what is vital is a holistic approach to developing policy, underpinned by a robust, evidence-based understanding of all options and the advantages and disadvantages of every option.
“If policy makers want to achieve particular outcomes, they must first fully understand all the issues and consequences and invest in time and resource to achieve that understanding; and in the meantime, be careful of promising too much or the wrong things.”
