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Pound falls as Bank of England says Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will hurt UK economy



The pound fell against the dollar and euro on Thursday after the Bank of England said that Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal would hamper UK economic growth.

Two BoE policymakers also voted unexpectedly to cut interest rates to support the stalling economy which has been battered by tumbling investment, poor productivity growth and lacklustre exports.

Sterling slid 0.3 per cent against the dollar after the BoE forecast that growth would be 1 per cent by the end of 2022, compared with what had been predicted in August before the prime minister secured his deal.

Growth forecasts were downgraded to 1.2 per cent in 2020 from 1.3 per cent, and to 1.8 per cent in 2021 from 2.3 per cent.

A quarter of the reduction resulted from Mr Johnson’s proposed Brexit deal with the rest due to a weaker global economy and “moves in asset prices”, the BoE said.

This is the first time that a specific Brexit deal has been modelled into economic growth forecasts by the Bank, stating that the deal leaves it worse off than under previous Brexit assumptions.

Shortly before the BoE’s assessment was published, chancellor Sajid Javid claimed in a speech that Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal was “good for the economy”.

The BoE said that forecasts had previously spread Brexit impacts on GDP over a 15-year period and the timeframe drafted by the deal has resulted in a significant downgrade in the near term.

The projections highlight that a greater proportion of the adjustment to new trading arrangements will take place in the next three years, causing a faster slowdown in growth.

It came as the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate on  hold at 0.75 per cent. 

However, two of the nine-member committee unexpectedly called for a 0.25 per cent rate cut, citing threats to economic growth and signs that the jobs market may be deteriorating.

It was the first time any MPC member has voted lower interest rates since the aftermath of the EU referendum in 2016.

“If global growth fails to stabilise, or if Brexit uncertainty remains entrenched, monetary policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery,” officials said in the summary of the meeting, published Thursday.

The BoE is increasingly concerned about Brexit uncertainty and a global economic global slowdown, factors which could push it towards making borrowing cheaper to stimulate growth.

Additional reporting by PA news agency



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