These new maps show coronavirus infections spreading further south across England and wherre cases are spiking in the North and elsewhere.
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s deputy chief medical officer, said he was concerned because Covid-19 was “heating up” in more of England than a week ago.
He gave a worrying update on the geographical spread of Covid-19 in England before details of the new three-tier lockdown system are revealed later.
Professor Van-Tam said the latest maps show that coronavirus rates in the South have climbed since he presented data to MPs and the House of Lords just three days ago.
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Speaking at a briefing to present the latest data, he said there had clearly been a “marked pick-up” in cases in England as a whole, which would result in more deaths.
Reporters were told that 40 per cent of all current cases are in the North.
Professor Van-Tam presented a series of maps showing the geographical spread as of October 6.
One (in purple) shows weekly case rates per 100,000 people in the week up to October 6, and the other (in brown) shows the rate change per 100,000 population by local authority between September 23-29 and September 30 to Oct 6.
He said the map showing the rate change was of greater concern, adding: “Dark brown areas indicate where things are heating up.”
In that map, the dark brown areas are reaching further south than they were the previous week.
Professor Van Tam said: “I received these slides this morning. I showed very similar data to MPs and the House of Lords on Friday and the brown chart had not extended that far south.
“It has changed in a matter of just a few days and that is clearly of concern to me.”
Addressing the weekly case rate map, he said: “There are now very dark areas in the North West, the North East and really a confluent dark purple colour across the northern part of the UK extending down into the West Midlands and the East Midlands.”
Separate maps show the weekly case rates and rate change involving people aged over 60 who have tested positive for the virus.
Prof Van-Tam also warned that coronavirus was spreading from younger age groups into those aged of 60.
“There is the spread from those younger age groups into the 60 plus age group in the North West and the North East, and there are rates of change in the same places but also extending a little further south.
“And this is again of significant concern… because of course the elderly suffer a much worse course with Covid-19, they are admitted to hospital for longer periods, and they are more difficult to save.”
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said other regions were now following the North West of England pattern where the virus moved through the age bands, having started spiking among young people at first.
Explaining an age-specific chart at a press briefing, he said: “You will see that the infection rate was initially highest in the 16-29-year-olds.
“And that, as you move to the right just gets hotter and hotter but as it does so you can see the incremental creep of the infection into the next age band up, 30-44, followed two or three weeks later by a creep-up again into the 45-59s, and you can now see that the 60+ are now heating up on that chart.
“The North West experienced all of this first and my understanding is that pattern is likely to be followed – you can see it in the North East and you can see it in Yorkshire and the Humber just beginning but at an earlier stage.”
The Government expert said that although there was more testing now than at the height of the first wave of the pandemic, it was clear there was a resurgence in cases.
“The key point is that having had a rather flat summer, with very low amounts of Covid-positive patients in the UK, you can see that from early September there has been a marked pick-up,” he said.
There is a lag between cases being identified and patients being admitted to hospital or dying.
“The hospital admissions we have now actually relate to a time when there fewer cases of Covid-19,” he said.
“Already, with the cases that we know about, we have baked in additional hospital admissions and sadly we also have baked in additional deaths that are now consequent upon infections that have already happened.”
