“You feel trapped, it’s quite horrendous,” said Fiona Harvey, who lives on the 10th floor of a tower block in Portsmouth with her adult son. Harvey has to take the lift to leave the building, which does not allow for social distancing.
“When the lockdown first started, people were still cramming themselves into the lift. There must be people in the building who are shielding, who can’t get out at all because of the lift,” she said.
“When our flats were built, they were aimed at single adults, but with the desperate need for social housing they’ve become homes for families, in buildings that were never intended for that. There isn’t a lot of space for young people to play,” she said. “There’s a resident garden with a notice saying no ball games.”
Harvey and her son are two of many people in Britain living without their own access to green space. As the lockdown enters its second month, many are struggling without gardens or balconies to get fresh air and sunshine throughout the day. For them, the lockdown is a very different experience.
“The current lockdown has created two classes of people : those with outdoor space and those that haven’t,” said David Nunn, 40, who lives in a second-floor flat in London. “If I had a garden over Easter I’d have been out there all day, having a BBQ, sunbathing, or gardening. For a lot of people living in cities, we don’t even have balconies. Once you’re inside your property, there’s nowhere else to go.”
Nunn is considered to be at high risk of getting severe symptoms of coronavirus, so has been told to stay indoors for 12 weeks.
“I can sit on the windowsill and the position of the sun in the late afternoon means I can dangle one leg out at a time,” he said. “That’s about it for my sunshine for now.”
For many without their own green space, daily walks have become a lifeline.
However, many parents are struggling to keep children exercised and entertained without gardens.
“The gates on the local nature reserve have been closed, and all the local sports facilities have been shut down. Even the basketball hoops have been removed,” said Natasha Dunbar, who lives with her two daughters, aged 10 and 15, in a flat in Essex.
Her youngest daughter, Jada, enjoys sport in school. “I’m getting on quite well, it’s been quite fun because I’ve been enjoying time with my family, but wish I had a garden and a bit of space, and a trampoline,” she said. “I really enjoy PE at school – I do gymnastics and swimming – and I miss it. A garden would give us more fun and exercise.”
Epidemics of infectious diseases behave in different ways but the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed more than 50 million people is regarded as a key example of a pandemic that occurred in multiple waves, with the latter more severe than the first. It has been replicated – albeit more mildly – in subsequent flu pandemics.
How and why multiple-wave outbreaks occur, and how subsequent waves of infection can be prevented, has become a staple of epidemiological modelling studies and pandemic preparation, which have looked at everything from social behaviour and health policy to vaccination and the buildup of community immunity, also known as herd immunity.
Is there evidence of coronavirus coming back elsewhere?
This is being watched very carefully. Without a vaccine, and with no widespread immunity to the new disease, one alarm is being sounded by the experience of Singapore, which has seen a sudden resurgence in infections despite being lauded for its early handling of the outbreak.
Although Singapore instituted a strong contact tracing system for its general population, the disease re-emerged in cramped dormitory accommodation used by thousands of foreign workers with inadequate hygiene facilities and shared canteens.
Singapore’s experience, although very specific, has demonstrated the ability of the disease to come back strongly in places where people are in close proximity and its ability to exploit any weakness in public health regimes set up to counter it.
What are experts worried about?
Conventional wisdom among scientists suggests second waves of resistant infections occur after the capacity for treatment and isolation becomes exhausted. In this case the concern is that the social and political consensus supporting lockdowns is being overtaken by public frustration and the urgent need to reopen economies.
The threat declines when susceptibility of the population to the disease falls below a certain threshold or when widespread vaccination becomes available.
In general terms the ratio of susceptible and immune individuals in a population at the end of one wave determines the potential magnitude of a subsequent wave. The worry right now is that with a vaccine still months away, and the real rate of infection only being guessed at, populations worldwide remain highly vulnerable to both resurgence and subsequent waves.
“I’m finding it hard, especially on days like today when it’s hot out,” Dunbar said. “We have the window open, and go for walks, but it’s not the same as having a private space. I don’t think people with gardens know how hard it can be … The government keep saying we’re all in this together, but we aren’t.”
“It’s really difficult for anyone with kids, especially young kids, because it’s hard to explain why everything’s changed,” said Sarah, a single parent of a two-year-old son who lives in a flat without any outside space in Somerset. “The play park we used to go to twice a day is locked up, and my son can’t understand why.”
“I know we shouldn’t, but we have to go out twice a day, in the morning and afternoon,” she said, adding they are careful to avoid others. “My son wouldn’t manage with no outdoor space. On the days we didn’t go out twice, it’s been tantrums, and screaming fits, and he doesn’t sleep properly. He’s too young for arts and crafts, he just isn’t interested.”
“I have friends with paddling pools, and swings, in the garden. I’ve just got the telly. It’s not the parent I want to be, I feel guilty about that,” she said.
The lack of space and contact with other adults is impacting Sarah. “We used to go to the park, have playdates, go to nursery. We don’t get to do any of that. I miss people, and human interactions. I’m a single mum by choice, so I planned lots of things, but never for a global pandemic,” she said.
