The West Midlands metro mayoral race is a key test for Keir Starmer’s leadership of Labour.
Conservative Andy Street’s 2017 victory in the region came at a high point in Theresa May’s reign as Prime Minister, just a month before the general election where she surrendered the Tories’ majority.
Street holding the West Midlands for the Conservatives would signal that Starmer’s plan to win back former Labour heartlands needs much greater work.
But triumph for Labour candidate Liam Byrne, a former Cabinet Minister under Gordon Brown, would suggest the party is on the road to redemption in the southern part of its Red Wall ex-strongholds.
The party would also celebrate victory in the West Yorkshire race, where former Coronation Street actress and backbench MP Tracy Brabin is bidding to become the region’s first mayor.
Less significantly nationally, losing out would still mark another blow against Starmer’s fledgling premiership.
Liam Byrne knows he is fighting a tough battle that could prove transformative in rebuilding Labour’s fortunes.
But the Birmingham Hodge Hill MP is optimistic about his chances to seize the mayoralty from Tory incumbent Andy Street.
He told the Mirror there was a “completely different mood” in the campaign compared to two years ago, partly due to Keir Starmer’s leadership.
Mr Byrne said: “People have a respect that here is a decent intelligent person who is basically in politics for the right reasons, so that is contributing quite significantly to the change in atmosphere.”
Canvassing the Norton estate in the east of the city, constituents frequently stop to talk and joke with him, despite the sleepiness of the area, as many of the majority Kashmiri residents were observing Ramadan.
Mr Byrne said Labour voters may have backed the Tories at the last election but many are wavering.
“There is a real sense they did not know and they did not trust how Boris was going to deliver on the hopes people had for Brexit,” he said.
And he said the sleaze scandal was coming up often on the doorstep.
He said: “There was never any great love for Boris Johnson in the West Midlands.
“People thought he was a bit of a clown but people voted to get Brexit sorted.
“Now people are just nauseated and disgusted and they think he’s just a weak man who’s given into temptation.”
(Image: Rowan Griffiths)
A recent poll for the Times gave Mr Street a nine-point lead in the first preference votes, with 46% to 37% for Mr Byrne.
But the Labour contender believes the online polls are not reflecting what his team is hearing on the ground.
“We’re contacting thousands of people a week and so we can see how strong the support is and we can see the drift back to Labour from the Tories, which has picked up in the last week,” he said.
Mr Byrne, a former Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, knows the stakes are high.
“We know that we are not only fighting for this role here, we are fighting for the Labour Party nationally,” he said.
“Labour cannot win Government unless Labour wins in the West Midlands.”
(Image: Rowan Griffiths)
He thinks his plans to centre recovery on green industry, to make the region net zero, and to retain the community spirit shown in the pandemic can play a key role in getting Labour back on its feet nationally.
Mr Starmer and a string of senior frontbenchers have joined him on the campaign trail in recent weeks.
But there is some concern in the party about Mr Byrne’s chances.
“The feeling is they have had a difficult campaign as Andy Street isn’t a Tory in the conventional sense,” one party source said.
“The campaign has tried to pin him as a regular Tory but it’s not worked as effectively as they wanted it to.
“There’s a sense that it’s an uphill battle but they are probably going to fall short.”
