The ridge overlooking the nondescript railway freight centre at Toton offers a view of British industrial history. Some of the tracks are still in use, though many are covered by grass and trees; the Erewash canal that transported coal from the nearby Nottinghamshire mines has been left to anglers; and the giant coal-fired power station beyond is largely dormant.
Whether the area will spring to life again depends on a decision to be made more than 120 miles south, in London: the building of the extension to the contentious High Speed 2 rail line.
Toton Sidings would get a combined HS2 and mainline station with links to surrounding towns and cities under present plans for the £56bn project. London would be less than an hour away, and Birmingham 20 minutes.
Adrian Smith, of Nottinghamshire county council, unfurls a plan of what the suburb might look like in 15 years’ time.
The plans show a green-roofed station surrounded by parkland, office blocks and villages. The area straddles Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire, and in a rare show of unity the county councils have agreed a joint development plan.
“This is a region that has historically been left behind. That is why we are so passionate about this,” said Mr Smith, who has been seconded to work for a combination of local authorities on the plan.
The development is among four sites close together that could create more than 5,000 homes and 50,000 jobs if the HS2 extension happens — 10,000 around Toton alone, which would host a science and innovation park.
In March, the government provided £2m towards setting up the East Midlands Development Corporation, a body that would have the powers to realise those plans.
But senior Conservative party figures such as Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, and Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury, oppose HS2 because of rising costs. Parliament has approved the line from London to Birmingham but a decision on the northern legs to Manchester and Leeds via Toton, which have a budget of £29.4bn, has been delayed until 2020.
Stop HS2, a campaign group opposed to the line, has warned that Toton sits in a flood plain and is unsuitable for development. Those who will lose their homes are also against it while some residents worry about congestion. But the local neighbourhood forum is cautiously backing the plans.
“The communities here would feel very let down, again, if HS2 didn’t happen,” said Mr Smith.
The Tories would also be betraying their manifesto commitment to spread prosperity beyond the south-east and the big cities if the extension was cancelled, said Maria Machancoses, director of Midlands Connect, a regional transport body. “This is the epitome of rebalancing the economy. HS2 is not just about the train line. It is the biggest investment in the region for decades. It has to happen,” she said.
Ms Machancoses dismissed claims HS2 would simply suck economic activity to the capital. “It is not about how quickly you can get to London. It is about regional interconnectivity,” she said.
It unlocks the potential of nearby sites, said Ms Machancoses. These include East Midlands airport, the UK’s busiest freight hub after Heathrow that operates 24 hours a day and hopes to create more than 6,000 jobs by 2030 as it expands. Logistics company UPS is already building a new facility there.
On the airport perimeter Segro, the property group, is erecting huge warehouses at its East Midlands Gateway site by the M1. The first of 11 giant warehouses covering 6m sq ft opened in April and the likes of Nestlé and Amazon have committed to buildings. The area should employ 10,000 by 2025.
Politicians and business leaders across the Midlands and the north have raised their voices in favour of the high speed line. In April, 82 northern MPs from different parties wrote to chancellor Philip Hammond demanding he commit to HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail, a £39bn plan to link the north’s big cities. “It is not a case of either/or — we need both,” said Kevin Hollinrake, Conservative MP for Thirsk and Malton.
Ms Machancoses said politicians’ public wavering has already hit private sector confidence. “You cannot just stop and start big projects. You have to show commitment,” she said.
Uniper, the owner of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal-fired power station near Toton, is among those demanding that commitment.
Uniper was spun out of German energy group Eon in 2016 and owns a number of plants across Europe. Dave Johnson, site manager, said it had started to plan for an industrial park for companies in the energy industry. But when he heard of the Toton scheme, he realised it could be far more ambitious.
“This is of regional and national significance. There is a bigger game in town. There is an emerging vision for us,” he said.
But he warned that HS2 was vital. “HS2 is the catalyst for us. It is the difference between a minor league and major league development,” he said.
James Brokenshire, the communities secretary and Midlands Engine champion, has visited Toton while Robert Jenrick, a Treasury minister who is also MP for Newark in Nottinghamshire, is supportive.
However, Ms Machancoses warned that even if the Treasury committed the money for HS2, local councils needed tens of millions of pounds from Whitehall to help build houses and infrastructure that the private sector was reluctant to pay for.
“A number of government departments have to sequence investments at the same time,” she said. “That joined up thinking in government is not easy to find.”
