This week is set to be a historic one in Westminster, as MPs attempt to legislate to stop a no-deal Brexit and government whips go into overdrive to stop a rebellion in the House of Commons, with a spending review and possible attempts to stop the prorogation of parliament in the mix as well. Here’s how the week is expected to play out:
Monday
A showdown meeting is set to take place between Boris Johnson and former Conservative cabinet ministers including Philip Hammond and David Gauke.
At 11pm UK time on 31 October the UK would, by default, become a “third country” in terms of relations with the EU, with no overarching post-Brexit plan in place and no transition period. The UK would no longer be paying into the EU budget, nor would it hand over the £39bn divorce payment.
The UK would drop out of countless arrangements, pacts and treaties, covering everything from tariffs to the movement of people, foodstuffs, other goods and data, to numerous specific deals on things such as aviation, and policing and security. Without an overall withdrawal agreement each element would need to be agreed. In the immediate aftermath, without a deal the UK would trade with the EU on the default terms of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including tariffs on agricultural goods.
The UK government has already indicated that it will set low or no tariffs on goods coming into the country. This would lower the price of imports – making it harder for British manufacturers to compete with foreign goods. If the UK sets the tariffs to zero on goods coming in from the EU, under WTO “most favoured nation” rules it must also offer the same zero tariffs to other countries.
WTO rules only cover goods – they do not apply to financial services, a significant part of the UK’s economy. Trading under WTO rules will also require border checks, which could cause delays at ports, and a severe challenge to the peace process in Ireland without alternative arrangements in place to avoid a hard border.
Some no-deal supporters have claimed that the UK can use article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) to force the EU to accept a period of up to 10 years where there are no tariffs while a free trade agreement is negotiated. However, the UK cannot invoke article 24 unilaterally – the EU would have to agree to it. In previous cases where the article has been used, the two sides had a deal in place, and it has never been used to replicate something of the scale and complexity of the EU and the UK’s trading relationship.
The director general of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, has told Prospect magazine that “in simple factual terms in this scenario, you could expect to see the application of tariffs between the UK and EU where currently there are none”.
Until some agreements are in place, a no-deal scenario will place extra overheads on UK businesses – eg the current government advice is that all drivers, including lorries and commercial vehicles, will require extra documentation to be able to drive in Europe after 31 October if there is no deal. Those arguing for a “managed” no deal envisage that a range of smaller, sector-by-sector, bilateral agreements could be quickly put into place as mutual self-interest between the UK and EU to avoid introducing or to rapidly remove this kind of bureaucracy.
The former justice secretary has said MPs are open-minded about the meeting, where they are likely to try and be persuaded that their efforts to stop no-deal Brexit will be damaging to the government’s attempts to get a new deal with Brussels.
Tuesday
MPs return to Westminster, though in practice we are likely to see many arriving on Monday.
It will be the first opportunity for the House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow, to give his response from the chair on the decision to prorogue parliament, something he has branded “a constitutional outrage”.
The first step for rebel MPs to begin efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit is likely to be a request for an emergency debate under standing order 24, which Bercow is likely to grant. In order for MPs to seize control of the Commons order paper – the parliamentary timetable for the week ahead – they will need to use the time to table a business motion and be permitted to do so by the Speaker.
Prorogation is the official term that marks the end of a parliamentary session. After being advised to do so by the prime minister, the Queen formally prorogues parliament. This takes the form of an announcement in the House of Lords on the Queen’s behalf. It is a speech, written by the government, which usually describes the bills that have been passed during that session and summarises what has been achieved.
It means that all work on existing legislation stops, and MPs and Lords stop sitting. Prorogation also automatically kills any bills, early day motions or questions to ministers going through parliament.
Parliament can then be reopened a few days later with a fresh slate of legislation intentions, set out in a new Queen’s speech at the formal state opening of parliament.
If rebels can win the vote on the business motion, they can use the time to table a new short bill which will order the prime minister to seek an extension to article 50 to prevent no deal. It is still unclear how long that extension will be and how MPs can ensure Johnson will actually request a meaningful extension.
Legal efforts to stop the prorogation of parliament will also get under way in Edinburgh, where the court will consider one of three legal challenges.
Wednesday
The chancellor, Sajid Javid, is set to present his spending review to parliament – though this will very much depend on how radically MPs have changed the order paper. It will also be Boris Johnson’s first prime minister’s questions.
The day is likely to be used to clear all the Commons stages for a bill mandating an extension of article 50.
Thursday
The high court in London is due to consider another judicial review of Johnson’s plans to prorogue parliament, led by the anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller with other litigants including the former prime minister John Major and the Labour deputy leader, Tom Watson.
It is unclear if the rebels’ bill will have cleared the Commons by Thursday but there is a belief that it would be better to ensure it has reached the House of Lords as soon as possible because unlike in the House of Commons, peers can attempt to filibuster the bill with a huge number of wrecking amendments which must all be heard.
Friday–Monday
Parliament is not due to sit on Friday or at the weekend but peers could table a motion to sit through the weekend and get through all of the potentially disruptive amendments.
Johnson has reserved the right to prorogue parliament as early as Monday and if the bill fails to pass before parliament is suspended, the bill will fall. If the bill passes, rebels believe that the government cannot obstruct the Queen from giving royal assent so it becomes law.
The situation if the bill passes is then highly volatile – it is possible Johnson could opt to call an early general election.
