For each general election in Scotland, 59 MPs are elected to represent Scottish constituencies in Westminster. Unlike the rest of the UK, Scotland voted to remain in the European Union and the topic of independence remains a prominent political issue in the country. These political issues mean the Scottish National Party has achieved landslide victories in recent general elections. But who will win the December 12 general election in Scotland?
Almost every Westminster seat for Scotland is marginal.
At the last election, the winning party’s majority represented less than 10 percent of the vote in no less than 46 of the 59 Westminster seats.
In most of the 46 seats there was a substantial share of the vote to whoever came in third place.
In the 15 seats where Nicola Sturgeon’s party and then Theresa May’s party shared first and second place in the 2017 election, Labour on average won just under a fifth of the vote.
Furthermore, in the 28 seats where the battle was between the SNP and Labour, a little more than a fifth of the vote was secured by the Tories.
So what is the anticipated outcome for this general election?
According to the latest YouGov MRP poll published on Tuesday, the 59 Scottish seats will be split as follows:
- SNP: 41 seats
- Conservative: nine seats
- Labour: five seats
- Liberal Democrats: four seats
The SNP is forecast to make gains in Scotland at the detriment of the main parties, with Labour losing two of its previous seven seats to Nicola Sturgeon’s party.
Of the 13 seats the Conservatives took in 2017 the SNP is set to take five, however, all bar one show an extremely tight majority.
Among the 59 seats in the country, there are 11seats where the SNP is ahead by five percent or less.
There are an additional eight seats where the SNP is in second place at five percent or less behind the lead party, which includes North East Fife, where the SNP beat the Lib Dems by just two votes in 2017.
Betting website oddschecker forecasts Scottish National Party will walk away with an even larger win than the MRP poll suggests.
According to oddschecker, the results will be as follows:
- SNP: 43 seats
- Conservatives: nine seats
- Liberal Democrats: five seats
- Labour: two seats
On Thursday the latest bookmaker odds show the SNP will take a number of strongholds such as Glasgow Central with 1/12 odds.
Across the rest of Glasgow, in the North, North West and East all strong odds-on favourites to be won by the SNP.
However, some constituencies are more of an uncertainty, for instance the SNP are 1/20 favourites in Edinburgh East, 1/4 favourites in Edinburgh North and Leith and 1/4 favourites in Edinburgh South West.
However, Edinburgh South is a strong favourite for the Labour Party at 1/4 and Edinburgh West has the Liberal Democrats as 4/9 favourites.
Moray, Banff and Buchan, Gordon and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine are predicted to be won by the Tories, while the Liberal Democrats are predicted to secure Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross at 8/13 in their favour.