Politics

General election 2019 tactical voting guide to stop Boris Johnson taking power


Boris Johnson could be denied a majority if Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters vote tactically.

The Conservatives could be ousted from dozens of seats if just few hundred voters back the second placed party.

Labour came within 31 votes of taking Southampton Itchen from the Tories in 2017.

They could easily win the seat if the 725 Green voters and 1,421 Lib Dems back the Labour candidate this time.

It is a similar story in Amber Rudd’s former seat of Hastings which she held from Labour by 246 votes in 2017.

Amber Rudd’s old seat of Hastings and Rye is one of dozens where Tories could go

If a sixth of the 1,885 Lib Dem voters switch to Labour then the Tories will lose.

Labour could also take Cabinet Minister Theresa Villiers’s Chipping Barnet seat with Lib Dem support and boot out Iain Duncan Smith from his Chingford and Woodford Green constituency.

Labour votes are needed to help the Lib Dems defeat Tory Zac Goldsmith in Richmond which he held by 21 votes in 2017.

If just a handful of the 5,773 people who voted Labour two years ago switch to the Lib Dems then he will be out.

The Lib Dems are also best placed to beat the Conservatives in St Ives, Cheltenham, Devon North and Cheadle.

Theresa Villiers looks vulnerable in her seat of Chipping Barnet

Labour and Green voters should also look to support the Lib Dems in Dominic Raab ’s seat of Esher and Walton.

Polls put the Lib Dem candidate within 4% of a toppling the Foreign Secretary but to guarantee success requires the 11,773 people who voted Labour and the 1,074 who voted Green to back them.

In return Lib Dem voters could make the difference in Labour held seats such as Kensington, Dudley North, Canterbury and Crewe & Nantwich.

Labour and Green voters should look to support the Lib Dems in Dominic Raab’s seat

Oxford University’s Prof Stephen Fisher says there were 174 seats in the 2017 general election where MPs were elected with less than half the vote.

“In those constituencies, supporters of the parties that came third place or lower, could have defeated the MP by backing the second-placed party,” he told the BBC.

A survey by the pro-EU Best for Britain group found that if 117,314 people voted tactically in just 57 marginal seats it could deprive Johnson of a majority.

So we’ve now compiled our own guide to how you should vote tactically if you want to stop Boris Johnson taking power.

Vote Labour to beat Conservative-held Seat

Southampton, Itchen

Labour Candidate: Simon Letts

Tory Majority: 31

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.10%

Pudsey

Labour Candidate: Jane Aitchison

Tory Majority: 331

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.31%

Hastings and Rye

Labour Candidate: Peter Chowney

Tory Majority: 346

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.32%

Chipping Barnet

Labour Candidate: Emma Whysall

Tory Majority: 353

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.32%

Preseli Pembrokeshire

Labour Candidate: Philippa Thompson

Tory Majority: 314

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.41%

Thurrock

Labour Candidate: John Kent

Tory Majority: 345

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.34%

Calder Valley

Labour Candidate: Joshua Fenton-Glynn

Tory Majority: 609

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.53%

Norwich North

Labour Candidate: Karen Davis

Tory Majority: 507

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.56%

Broxtowe

Labour Candidate: Greg Marshall

Tory Majority: 863

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.78%

Stoke-On-Trent South

Labour Candidate: Mark McDonald

Tory Majority: 663

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.80%

Telford

Labour Candidate: Katrina Gilman

Tory Majority: 720

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.81%

Bolton West

Labour Candidate: Julie Hilling

Tory Majority: 936

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.92%

Aberconwy

Labour Candidate: Emily Owen

Tory Majority: 635

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.99%

Northampton North

Labour Candidate: Sally Keeble

Tory Majority: 807

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.00%

Hendon

Labour Candidate: David Pinto-Duschinsky

Tory Majority: 1072

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.03%

Mansfield

Labour Candidate: Sonya Rose Ward

Tory Majority: 1057

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.05%

Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East

Labour Candidate: Lauren Dingsdale

Tory Majority: 1020

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.07%

Milton Keynes South

Labour Candidate: Hannah O’Neill

Tory Majority: 1725

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.34%

Northampton South

Labour Candidate: Gareth Eales

Tory Majority: 1159

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.41%

Pendle

Labour Candidate: Azhar Ali

Tory Majority: 1279

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.43%

Morecambe & Lunesdale

Labour Candidate: Lizzi Collinge

Tory Majority: 1139

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.53%

Milton Keynes North

Labour Candidate: Charlynne Pullen

Tory Majority: 1975

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.50%

Finchley & Golden Green

Labour Candidate: Ross Houston

Tory Majority: 1657

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.58%

Camborne & Redruth

Labour Candidate: Paul Farmer

Tory Majority: 1577

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.63%

Putney

Labour Candidate: Fleur Anderson

Tory Majority: 1554

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.66%

Harrow East

Labour Candidate: Pamela Fitzpatrick

Tory Majority: 1757

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.73%

Watford

Labour Candidate: Chris Ostrowski

Tory Majority: 2092

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.78%

Copeland

Labour Candidate: Tony Lywood

Tory Majority: 1695

Swing needed for Labour win: 1.97%

Morley and Outwood

Labour Candidate: Deanne Ferguson

Tory Majority: 2104

Swing needed for Labour win: 2.01%

Vale of Glamorgan

Labour Candidate: Belinda Loveluck-Edwards

Tory Majority: 2190

Swing needed for Labour win: 2.04%

Corby

Labour Candidate: Beth Miller

Tory Majority: 2690

Swing needed for Labour win: 2.24%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

Labour Candidate: Marc Tierney

Tory Majority: 3110

Swing needed for Labour win: 3.68%

Scarborough and Whitby

Labour Candidate: Hugo Fearnley

Tory Majority: 3435

Swing needed for Labour win: 3.40%

Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Labour Candidate: Chris Webb

Tory Majority: 2023

Swing needed for Labour win: 2.47%

Swindon South

Labour Candidate: Sarah Church

Tory Majority: 2464

Swing needed for Labour win: 2.40%

Carlisle

Labour Candidate: Ruth Alcroft

Tory Majority: 2599

Swing needed for Labour win: 3.02%

Truro and Falmouth

Labour Candidate: Jennifer Forbes

Tory Majority: 3792

Swing needed for Labour win: 3.35%

Stevenage

Labour Candidate: Jill Borcherds

Tory Majority: 3384

Swing needed for Labour win: 3.43%

Loughborough

Labour Candidate: Stuart Brady

Tory Majority: 4269

Swing needed for Labour win: 3.94%

Filton and Bradley Stoke

Labour Candidate: Mhairi Threlfalll

Tory Majority: 4190

Swing needed for Labour win: 4.12%

Clwyd West

Labour Candidate: Joanne Thomas

Tory Majority: 3437

Swing needed for Labour win: 4.23%

Shipley

Labour Candidate: Jo Pike

Tory Majority: 4681

Swing needed for Labour win: 4.38%

Erewash

Labour Candidate: Catherine Atkinson

Tory Majority: 4534

Swing needed for Labour win: 4.55%

Worthing East and Shoreham

Labour Candidate: Lavinia O’Connor

Tory Majority: 5106

Swing needed for Labour win: 4.81%

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General election manifesto policies 2019

Vote Lib Dem to beat Conservative-held Seat

Richmond Park

Lib Dem Candidate: Sarah Olney

Tory Majority: 45

Swing needed for LibDem win: 0.04%

St. Ives

Lib Dem Candidate: Andrew George

Tory Majority: 312

Swing needed for LibDem win: 0.30%

Cheltenham

Lib Dem Candidate: Max Wilkinson

Tory Majority: 2569

Swing needed for LibDem win: 2.25%

Devon North

Lib Dem Candidate: Alex James White

Tory Majority: 4332

Swing needed for LibDem win: 3.89%

Cheadle

Lib Dem Candidate: Tom Morrison

Tory Majority: 4507

Swing needed for LibDem win: 4.13%

Lewes

LibDem Candidate: Oli Henman

Tory Majority: 5508

Swing needed for LibDem win: 5.08%

St Albans

LibDem Candidate: Daisy Cooper

Tory Majority: 6,109

Swing needed for LibDem win: 5.36%

Wells

LibDem Candidate: Tessa Munt

Tory Majority: 7582

Swing needed for LibDem win: 6.23%

Hazel Grove

LibDem Candidate: Lisa Smart

Tory Majority: 5514

Swing needed for LibDem win: 6.25%

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General election 2019

Vote Labour To Secure Labour-held marginal

Kensington

Labour Candidate: Emma Dent Coad

Majority: 20

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.03%

Dudley North

Labour Candidate: Melanie Dudley

Majority: 22

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.03%

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Labour Candidate: Carl Greatbatch

Majority: 30

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.03%

Crewe & Nantwich

Labour Candidate: Laura Smith

Majority: 48

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.04%

Canterbury

Labour Candidate: Rosie Duffield

Majority: 187

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.16%

Barrow & Furness

Labour Candidate: Chris Altree

Majority: 209

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.22%

Keighley

Labour Candidate: John Grogan

Majority: 239

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.24%

Ashfield

Labour Candidate: Natalie Fleet

Majority: 441

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.44%

Stroud

Labour Candidate: David Drew

Majority: 687

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.54%

Bishop Auckland

Labour Candidate: Helen Goodman

Majority: 502

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.58%

Peterborough

Labour Candidate: Lisa Forbes

Majority: 607

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.64%

Colne Valley

Labour Candidate: Thelma Walker

Majority: 915

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.76%

Bedford

Labour Candidate: Mohammad Yasin

Majority: 789

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.81%

Ipswich

Labour Candidate: Sandy Martin

Majority: 831

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.81%

Stockton South

Labour Candidate: Paul Williams

Majority: 888

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.82%

Warwick & Leamington

Labour Candidate: Matt Western

Majority: 1206

Swing needed for Conservative win: 1.12%

Penistone and Stocksbridge

Labour Candidate: Francyne Johnson

Majority: 1322

Swing needed for Conservative win: 1.33%

Lincoln

Labour Candidate: Karen Lee

Majority: 1538

Swing needed for Conservative win: 1.58%

Portsmouth South

Labour Candidate: Stephen Morgan

Majority: 1554

Swing needed for Conservative win: 1.74%

Warrington South

Labour Candidate: Faisal Rashid

Majority: 2549

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.06%

Derby North

Labour Candidate: Tony Tinley

Majority: 2015

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.07%

High Peak

Labour Candidate: Ruth George

Majority: 2322

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.16%

Battersea

Labour Candidate: Marsha De Cordova

Majority: 2416

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.19%

Wakefield

Labour Candidate: Mary Creagh

Majority: 2176

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.35%

Wolverhampton South West

Labour Candidate: Eleanor Smith

Tory Majority: 2185

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.58%

Wrexham

Labour Candidate: Mary Wimbury

Majority: 1832

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.61%

Stoke-on-Trent North

Labour Candidate: Ruth Smeeth

Majority: 2359

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.82%

Dewsbury

Labour Candidate: Paula Sherriff

Majority: 3321

Swing needed for Conservative win: 2.94%

Vale of Clwyd

Labour Candidate: Chris Ruane

Majority: 2379

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.07%

Reading East

Labour Candidate: Matt Rodda

Majority: 3749

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.39%

Gower

Labour Candidate: Tonia Antoniazzi

Majority: 3269

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.59%

Blackpool South

Labour Candidate: Gordon Marsden

Majority: 2523

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.61%

Great Grimsby

Labour Candidate: Melanie Onn

Majority: 2565

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.61%

Darlington

Labour Candidate: Jenny Chapman

Majority: 3280

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.66%

Weaver Vale

Labour Candidate: Mike Amesbury

Majority: 3928

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.88%

Rother Valley

Labour Candidate: Sophie Wilson

Majority: 3882

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.92%

Cardiff North

Labour Candidate: Anna McMorrin

Majority: 4174

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.01%

Bolton North East

Labour Candidate: Dave Crausby

Majority: 3797

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.20

Scunthorpe

Labour Candidate: Nicholas Dakin

Majority: 3431

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.27%

Bristol North West

Labour Candidate: Darren Jones

Majority: 4761

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.40%

Enfield Southgate

Labour Candidate: Feryal Clark

Majority: 4355

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.51%

Gedling

Labour Candidate: Vernon Coaker

Majority: 4694

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.54%

Bury North

Labour Candidate: James Frith

Majority: 4375

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.57%

Bassetlaw

Labour Candidate: Keir Alexander Morrison

Majority: 4,852

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.64%

Workington

Labour Candidate: Sue Hayman

Majority: 3925

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.71%

Croydon Central

Labour Candidate: Sarah Jones

Majority: 5652

Swing needed for Conservative win: 4.95%

Vote Lib Dem to secure Lib Dem-held marginal

Oxford West and Abingdon

Lib Dem Candidate: Layla Moran

Majority: 816

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.68%

Westmorland and Lonsdale

Lib Dem Candidate: Tim Farron

Majority: 777

Swing needed for Conservative win: 0.75%

Carshalton and Wallington

Lib Dem Candidate: Tom Brake

Majority: 1369

Swing needed for Conservative win: 1.35%

Eastbourne

Lib Dem Candidate: Stephen Lloyd

Majority: 1609

Swing needed for Conservative win: 1.40%

Kingston and Surbiton

Lib Dem Candidate: Ed Davey

Majority: 4124

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.32%

Norfolk North

Lib Dem Candidate: Karen Ward

Majority: 3512

Swing needed for Conservative win: 3.36%

Weird and unusual seats

Beaconsfield

Labour Candidate: Alexa Collins

Tory Majority: 24543

Swing needed for Labour win: 21.90%

Conservative-held by Dominic Grieve who is now standing as an independent, voted 51% remain

Broxtowe

Labour Candidate: Greg Marshall

Tory Majority: 863

Swing needed for Labour win: 0.78%

Conservative-held by Anne Soubry who is now standing for the Independent Group for Change

Buckingham

Labour Candidate: David Morgan

Tory Majority: N/A

Swing needed for Labour win: N/A

Formerly held by ex-Speaker John Bercow and last contested by Labour in 2005.

East Devon

Independent candidate: Claire Wright

Tory majority: 8,036

Local campaigner Claire Wright has been snapping at the Tory heels in the last two elections. With Labour and Lib Dem support she could easily take the seat

Four Tories we could finally get rid of:

Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton)

LibDem Candidate: Monica Harding

Tory Majority: 23298

Despite Raab’s prominent majority in the 2017 election, a recent Deltapoll survey claims he only has a five-point lead over the Lib Dems.

Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodgreen)

Labour Candidate: Faiza Shaheen

Tory Majority: 2438

If enough Lib Dem voters vote tactically they could oust IDS from parliament.

Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip)

Labour Candidate: Ali Milani

Tory Majority: 5034

Boris Johnson’s majority of 5034 is the smallest of any sitting Prime Minister since 1918.

John Redwood (Wokingham)

Lib Dem Candidate: Phillip Lee

Tory Majority: 18,798

A recent poll put the Tories at 42%, and LibDems at 38% in Wokingham.





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