From here to Brexeternity?

If Theresa May’s deal is passed by the House of Commons next week, the UK will enter a new era called “Brexeternity”. This, at least, is the view of former Labour minister Denis MacShane, who coined the term to describe the years ahead in which Brexit just goes on dominating British politics and public life.

Many Britons seem to assume that once the UK is out of the EU — whether via a deal or no deal — that will mark the end of the tortuous Brexit story.

A widespread assumption is that Brexit will be over and the country can go back to focusing on the issues that really matter to people — above all, the lack of public funding for police, schools, social care and local government that makes the headlines every day.

But there are good reasons for thinking it won’t turn out like that. Mrs May’s Brexit deal finalises the EU-UK divorce settlement. But the future trade relationship, as set out in the Political Declaration, is a tabula rasa on to which no firm commitments have been carved by either side.

As a result, Britain’s departure — if it happens — will simply mark the start of yet more years of negotiation between the EU and UK covering every sector of the economy, and yet more debate in Westminster and Whitehall about what kind of Brexit people want.

In an article for the LSE website this week, Mr MacShane reminds us how ambiguous the Political Declaration is.

Take, for example, paragraph four. It says that “the future relationship will be based on the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.” But it simultaneously commits to “the ending of free movement of people” between the UK and Europe and vice versa.

As Mr MacShane asks: “Where is the negotiating guru who can reconcile upholding and ending free movement in the same agreement?”

Or take paragraph 17. Both sides “agree to develop an ambitious economic partnership, respecting the integrity of the Union’s Single Market and the Customs Union.” But they go on to recognise “the development of an independent trade policy by the United Kingdom beyond this economic partnership.”

How will this circle be squared by hitherto undiscovered geniuses in Whitehall and Brussels? It is impossible to say.

Two points flow from this. First, as they prepare to vote next Tuesday, MPs ought to ask themselves once more whether it really is in the UK’s interests to sign up to a “Blind Brexit” with an unknown destination.

As former prime minister Tony Blair told the Andrew Marr programme on Sunday: “The risk for Britain is that we leave not knowing what the future relationship with Europe is, pay the money up front, become supplicants to Europe, have no negotiating leverage, and then of course it’s too late to do something about it if we decide we don’t like it.”

The second point to note is that the hard Conservative Brexiters of the European Research Group are pretty comfortable with the ambiguity. There are growing signs that the ERG is looking to back the deal. But as Nick Kent writes on the InFacts blog: “This apparent Damascene conversion to May’s deal hides a clever calculation: once the UK is out of the EU, Brexit will be a reality but everything else will be up for grabs.”

In other words, Brexit Day will quickly be followed by Mrs May’s departure from office. In the subsequent Tory leadership contest, the ERG will want to install a prime minister who can drive the UK towards the hardest possible Brexit.

We shall see next week whether Mrs May can finally get her deal across the line. If the PM pulls it off, business — and much of the country — will breathe a sigh of relief that a decision has finally been reached. But many Britons will be aghast to discover that getting Mrs May’s deal across the line is only the beginning of the Brexit story.

Further reading

Bombardier presses DUP to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal

“The increasing threat of Britain leaving without a deal has prompted Bombardier to warn the DUP, which has fiercely criticised Mrs May’s deal in the past, of the serious consequences on its Northern Ireland operations of a hard exit, according to people familiar with the discussions. The behind-the-scenes intervention adds to mounting business pressure on the DUP, whose 10 MPs will play a pivotal role in determining whether the UK prime minister will secure a majority for the Brexit deal in a potentially decisive showdown in the House of Commons.” (FT reporters)

A loss of trust over Brexit could break our politics. And I shudder to think of the consequences

“When I resigned from Cabinet, I did so because I did not believe the Withdrawal Agreement honoured the vote to leave the EU. In my letter to the Prime Minister, I warned of the risk of losing trust with the public and that once it is gone, like the soul, it never returns. It’s a theme I have returned to many times since then. It is this loss of trust that will truly break our politics, and I shudder to think just what the consequences will be.” (Esther McVey MP, Conservative Home)

Death by a thousand cuts: How Brexit is destroying UK academia

“If the higher education sector is so great, why are the government destroying us by a thousand cuts? It is thoroughly disheartening how little consideration our sector receives from the UK government in its approach to Brexit and the way it treats us more generally. Morale in UK higher education has reached rock bottom . . . ” (Helen De Cruz, PMP Magazine)

Hard numbers

How will Brexit affect UK house prices and mortgages?

As the UK’s planned exit from the EU looms, London’s housing market has largely frozen up and other parts of the UK have begun to feel the chill. Transactions of high-end homes in central London last year reached a decade low, in a market already damped by stamp duty changes, according to LonRes, the data group.

Overall, year-on-year house price growth across the UK in January was at its slowest in almost six years, with a rise of just 0.1 per cent, according to the Nationwide index; it remained sluggish in February, with a 0.4 per cent rise. Read more