Speaking to an angry House of Commons on Wednesday night, Prime Minister Boris Johnson told MPs he was in the midst of breakthroughs on the Brexit backstop and key sticking points in negotiations with the EU. He said he was “told there was no chance of a new deal, but we are discussing a new deal.” But less than 24 hours later, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said while they remained open to “any new legal and operational proposals with the UK”, they are, in fact, “still waiting” for such a suggestion from the Prime Minister. So what’s really going on?
Professor Alex de Ruyter, director of the Centre for Brexit Studies in Birmingham, told Express.co.uk the most likely outcome might displease those hoping for real change.
He said: “Looking at it in the cold light of day, he has only two choices to effect a withdrawal agreement from the EU: Stick with Theresa May’s agreement with its entire UK backstop, or revert to the EU’s original offer of a Northern Ireland-only backstop.”
Theresa May’s Brexit deal, which was voted down by overwhelming numbers on three occasions, contained a version of the backstop which would see the whole of the UK tied to a quasi-customs union.
The backstop is a safety net designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland in the event a trade deal cannot be negotiated during the two-year transition period after Brexit officially begins.
Mrs May and the EU have insisted it was never meant to be used, but MPs widely rejected it for its capacity to keep the UK tied to EU trade laws without any say in them.
The alternative is the initial backstop offer from the EU, which would only encompass Northern Ireland.
This was dismissed by Mrs May as it would essentially create a border down the Irish Sea, cutting Northern Ireland off from the rest of the UK.
Due to Northern Ireland’s DUP propping up the Government in the House of Commons after the disastrous 2017 election, obeying their wishes to avoid a UK border was a red line for Mrs May.
However, Professor de Ruyter said: “Given that Johnson no longer has a majority, even with DUP support, he might well present this to Parliament, in order to secure the necessary votes to get Brexit over the line by October 31.”
And, he added, there is a chance he’d get a deal including either version of the backstop over the line in the House of Commons this time.
“The Parliamentary outcome would depend on two groups of MPs,” Professor de Ruyter said.
“The hard Brexit European Research Group (ERG) of Tory MPs, many of whom see any kind of Withdrawal Agreement as a sell-out…and a second group of MPs, namely Labour MPS in strongly Leave-voting areas such as Ruth Smeeth and Lisa Nandy.”
Professor de Ruyter said there’s a good chance the ERG would vote with the Government on a Northern Ireland-only backstop, “particularly if it allows the UK Government to start pursuing an independent trade policy upon the expiry of a transition period.”
As for the second group of Labour MPs in strong leave areas, he said: “They could be tempted to cross the floor to vote with the Government on a revised Withdrawal Agreement,” to get Brexit over the line.
Professor de Ruyter added that while the PM still has “some wriggle room” to try get a deal, he’s quickly running out of options, with MPs turning to the courts to block his methods.
“I think the effect of the Supreme Court ruling will increase the pressure on Johnson to bring a variant of Mrs May’s failed withdrawal agreement back to the Parliamentary table, in the hope that he could win over disaffected Tories to his cause,” he said.
