China’s Hubei province has reported its lowest number of new coronavirus cases since January, giving officials hope that measures to contain the outbreak may be working.
Health authorities in Hubei, the province at the epicentre of the outbreak, reported 1,638 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, down from a peak of more than 3,000 new cases on 4 February and the lowest number of new infections since 31 January. National infection rates were also down.
Zhong Nanshan, an epidemiologist who is leading a government-appointed group working to control the outbreak, said on Tuesday that the numbers of new cases were falling in some provinces. He forecast the epidemic could peak this month.
“I hope this outbreak or this event may be over in something like April,” he told Reuters. Zhong previously forecast an earlier peak that turned out to be incorrect.
As of midnight on Tuesday, China’s health commission said there were 2,015 new cases across the country, compared with 2,478 on Monday – a fall of 18.6%. The number of new cases in China is now 44,653.
The death rate also fell across the country – for only the second time since the outbreak began. The number of new deaths reported as of midnight on Tuesday in China was 97, up two from earlier. That compares with 108 reported for Monday – a fall of 10.2%. Of the new deaths, 94 were in Hubei province.
But international experts remain alarmed by the spread of the virus that has now killed more than 1,100 people, all but two in mainland China.
Asked about Zhong’s prediction, Australia’s chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, said: “I think it’s far too premature to say that”.
The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.
The UN agency advises people to:
- Frequently wash their hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or warm water and soap
- Cover their mouth and nose with a flexed elbow or tissue when sneezing or coughing
- Avoid close contact with anyone who has a fever or cough
- Seek early medical help if they have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, and share their travel history with healthcare providers
- Avoid direct, unprotected contact with live animals and surfaces in contact with animals when visiting live markets in affected areas
- Avoid eating raw or undercooked animal products and exercise care when handling raw meat, milk or animal organs to avoid cross-contamination with uncooked foods.
Despite a surge in sales of face masks in the aftermath of the outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak, experts are divided over whether they can prevent transmission and infection. There is some evidence to suggest that masks can help prevent hand-to-mouth transmissions, given the large number of times people touch their faces. The consensus appears to be that wearing a mask can limit – but not eliminate – the risks, provided they are used correctly.
The Foreign and Commonwealth Office has advised UK nationals to leave China where possible. It is also warning that travellers from Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand who develop symptoms of cough or fever or shortness of breath within 14 days of returning the UK should contact the NHS by phone.
“I think we’ve just got to watch the data very closely over the coming weeks before we make any predictions,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on Wednesday.
The World Health Organization has described the virus as a global threat, potentially worse than terrorism. The world must “wake up and consider this enemy virus as public enemy number one,” World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters on Tuesday, adding that the first vaccine was 18 months away.
World health authorities have officially named the pathogen Covid-19 – CO for corona, VI for virus, D for disease and 19 for the year it emerged. Ghebreyesus said the goal of the name was to avoid stigma. For weeks, some have called the outbreak the “China virus” or “Wu flu” for Wuhan, where the virus was first detected.
Public health experts caution that there are still many unknowns, including its lethality, mode of transmission, what groups are most vulnerable to the virus and the success of prevention and quarantine measures so far.
“Have these massive public health interventions, social distancing, and mobility restrictions worked in China?” Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University and a leading coronavirus expert, told the Guardian. “If so, how can we roll them out, or is it not possible?”
The incubation period, estimated to be between five and six days or up to 14 days, still requires more research. According to findings published on Sunday by Zhong and his team, the median incubation period is three days. One patient had reported a 24-day incubation period.
Hundreds of cases have been reported in dozens of countries and territories around the world, including one fatality in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.
The biggest cluster of cases outside of China was aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined off the Japanese port of Yokohama with about 3,700 people on board. Japanese officials on Wednesday said another 39 people had tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the total to 174. A quarantine officer who boarded the ship to collect forms also tested positive.
Non-essential staff of the US consulate in Hong Kong have been authorised to evacuate the city on a voluntary basis, according to the US state department, which has announced similar measures for staff in mainland Chinese cities.
Chinese authorities, nervous about the outbreak’s impact on the economy, have been pushing businesses and factories to reopen. Hubei province, where Wuhan and surround cities have been put under de facto quarantine for more than two weeks, is meant to return to work on 14 February as the extended lunar new year holiday comes to an end. Officials have yet to extend the date.
“Wuhan has just passed the first fourteen days [of quarantine]. Restarting work now would be the equivalent of repeating earlier disastrous mistakes. From the perspective of preventing and controlling the epidemic, this is not possible,” said Wang, 26, a teacher in the city.
“We are all waiting to see if they extend the date. Nobody wants to [go back to work]. If we don’t hear in these two days of a postponement then we all have to go back,” said Tuan Tuan, 31, who works in a bank in Wuhan.
At least 500 medical workers in Wuhan had contracted the virus by mid-January, according to the South China Morning Post, citing medical sources who said authorities told staff not to disclose the cases to the public.
China’s state news agency Xinhua said in an article published late on Tuesday the epidemic was a “battle that has no gunpowder smoke but must be won”.
It warned the epidemic was a “big test of China’s governance system and capabilities” and said some officials were still “dropping the ball” in places where it was most severe. “This is a wake-up call for us,” it said.
