Boris Johnson’s campaign to become the next Conservative leader has received another boost as bookies promote him to odds-on favourite to replace Theresa May.
The former foreign secretary has extended his lead in the betting stakes following a much-lauded performance at the centrist One Nation wing of the party’s hustings. Johnson’s campaign chief, Gavin Williamson, subsequently declared him “the only one who can put the Brexit Party back in its box” and “the one who can save the party”.
“Not everyone was onside, mind,” says the BBC’s Chris Mason. Tory MP James Duddridge told Mason that while listening to Boris Johnson, veteran Conservative Sir Nicholas Soames had “his head in his hands like all his family has died”, while Ken Clarke sat “with his arms folded”.
All the same, Johnson’s chances of replacing May as prime minister have been further improved by an article in The Times written by three Tory moderates who describe the leadership front runner as a “proven winner”.
MPs Rishi Sunak, Robert Jenrick and Oliver Dowden argue that Johnson is a One Nation Conservative whose values can “inspire the country and revitalise our party”. They add: “He will take the fight to our opponents – Farage and Corbyn – and we will win.”
Johnson now has 40 public endorsements from his party’s MPs – 14 more than either of his nearest rivals, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt. And the support of Sunak, Jenrick and Dowden is another “good look for Boris, as these are three ambitious, moderate ministers who will believe they are backing the candidate most likely to win next month’s contest”, says Politico’s Jack Blanchard.
So can anything can stop Boris Johnson winning the race to claim the top job?
New rules
The momentum also “heads Johnson’s way” in the new rules for the leadership race agreed by the Tory’s backbench 1922 Committee, says HuffPost’s Paul Waugh. A total of 11 contenders remain in the contest, following the withdrawals of James Cleverly and Kit Malthouse – “both former aides to Boris, so if they back someone else that’ll be a story”, notes Waugh.
Candidates now need to secure support from at least eight MPs to stand, and must then win at least 16 votes in the first ballot and 32 in the second round – a set-up that “will speed up the contest and make life easier for the front-runners”, Waugh adds.
However, the changes do not make Johnson’s selection a foregone conclusion, as he “needs a decent cushion of support in the first ballot, given that Dominic Raab is more likely to pick up support as the harder Brexiteer candidates are eliminated”, says The Spectator’s James Forsyth.
In truth, a “Johnson vs. Gove rematch is, at present, the most likely outcome”, Forsyth continues. But “some cabinet ministers fear that it would become just another episode in the Tory psycho-drama and infuriate a public weary of the Tories’ theatrical behaviour”, he adds.
Potential bus backlash
There is also concern in the Johnson camp over a summons ordering the former London mayor to appear in court over claims that he lied and misled the public during the 2016 EU referendum campaign.
Lawyers representing businessman Marcus Ball, who is spearheading the crowdfunded case, allege that Johnson lied and engaged in criminal conduct when he repeatedly claimed that the UK sent £350m a week to Brussels. The figure was plastered on the side of a Vote Leave bus that toured Britain during the tightly fought campaign.
The former foreign secretary “knew the figure was wrong, still he chose to repeat it over and over and over”, Lewis Power, a lawyer for Ball, told Westminster Magistrates’ Court last month.
Johnson has launched a judicial review application into the ruling, with allies claiming that the decision to haul him to court is “nothing less than a politically motivated attempt to reverse Brexit”. If Johnson is granted a review, a more senior judge “will decide on the merits of the summons, and therefore whether any further proceedings will take place”, says Sky News.
The BBC’s assistant political editor, Norman Smith, says the allegations “could not come at a worse time” for Johnson, with his critics “likely to use the claims against him in the upcoming contest to become next Tory leader and prime minister”.
But others believe the case could boost his leadership bid. Labour peer Stewart Wood tweeted: “If Boris wants to fight a campaign based on being the PM to take on the Establishment elites (I know, I know, the irony could flood the Hebrides), this could be a bit of a gift.”
