Brexit 'penalty' to hit Tories hard in local elections if Theresa May deal fails

Tories across England face losing their council seats in a “ Brexit penalty” if Theresa May fails to strike a deal, an elections expert declared today.

Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and polling guru, warned “target practice” on his party in next month’s local elections risks being magnified by the chaos over Brexit. 

Just over half (4,628) of the 8,265 seats in 243 areas up for election on May 2 are Conservative, according to new analysis by Lord Hayward and polling firm ComRes. 

Yet turnout is set to drop “dramatically” since the seats were last fought in 2015, on general election day. 

Lord Hayward said this drop in turnout, combined with “bored to the teeth” Brexit voters staying at home, is set to hit the Conservatives in their heartlands if there is still no agreement in a month’s time.

The peer – who predicted the “shy Tories” surge that helped David Cameron win in 2015 – said: “There is a Brexit benefit to the government if there is a deal. 

“There is clearly a disadvantage, disbenefit, a deficit to the Tory party to not having a deal.

“There’s no question about it. And if you talk to most of the MPs they will say exactly the same thing.

“They want a deal so they can go out on the doorstep at the last minute and say ‘we’ve got a deal’.

“But if there isn’t a deal, the Tories have a disadvantage.”

The same boost is not expected in a No Deal Brexit , he added. 

The analysis claimed Lib Dems and Greens were most likely to benefit from any Tory losses.

Vince Cable’s party is predicted to make gains in Bath and North East Somerset and Wokingham – home to hard Brexiteer Tory MPs Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood.

The Lib Dems are contesting 53% seats while the Greens are contesting 30%.

UKIP are contesting just 16% of seats, a dramatic drop from 44% in 2015.

Meanwhile Labour is tipped to seize control of Trafford and Calderdale councils.

But despite soaring membership under Jeremy Corbyn , Labour is contesting only 77% of seats.

This is a rise from 75% in 2015 and 72% in 2011, but well below the 96% contested by Tories.

A Labour source said it was because many of the elections are being held in rural Tory heartlands.

Council elections are being held in most of England outside London and Birmingham.

Labour is defending 2,069 seats while Lib Dems hold 641, Independents hold 398 and 529 seats belong to smaller parties or community groups.