Bournemouth have lost their last five games and won only one of 11 since mid-September and, given their form and their position a point off the bottom three, for the first time since their promotion in 2015 they look in genuine danger of relegation. This weekend they visit Chelsea, another difficult fixture in a season unexpectedly full of them, and despite Chelsea’s habit of letting their opponents back into games towards the end, it would be a surprise if Bournemouth broke their bad run at Stamford Bridge.
I saw them at Crystal Palace this month and was shocked by how flat their performance was. They did not seem to have any idea how to create chances. They played a 4-4-2 with Callum Wilson and Dominic Solanke up front and, even though Palace went down to 10 men early on, Eddie Howe did not seem to make any tactical change to adopt a more attacking approach. They did not look as if they were going to score at all until towards the end, when they abandoned their principles out of desperation and started pumping the ball into the box.
I do not like to criticise managers, because I have never managed or coached myself. But I wonder if Howe has maybe run out of ideas. Bournemouth have the smallest ground in the Premier League, and their achievement in reaching the top flight and remaining there for five years cannot be dismissed, but there are lots of clubs in the Premier League this season proving you can win matches without the fan-base or the finances the so-called top six have to play with, by defending well, having a reliable goalkeeper, counter-attacking well and having a coach who gets the best out of the squad. It is no longer clear that Bournemouth offer any of these things.
There is a question of ambition. It may seem strange for a club with a capacity of 11,329 to end the season among the top 15 in the entire country and still not be satisfied but the Premier League will punish any side that stops trying to improve. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Bournemouth and Watford are both struggling, after being promoted together in 2015 and spending the past few years fighting just to be average. Watford got to the FA Cup final and a comfortable league position last season, started this one with the same manager and a very similar team and have have been in disarray ever since. Ten games into last season Bournemouth and Watford were sixth and seventh in the league and flying; and now – for all that the Cherries aren’t in the same predicament as the Hornets – both are in trouble.
The moment you rest on your laurels they have a habit of falling apart. This is not just the case with the smaller sides: Manchester City are going through the same process, trying to repeat what they achieved in the past couple of seasons, only all of a sudden to look like an ageing squad, open in midfield, beatable on the counter. Watford and Bournemouth, it appears, thought they could do what worked a couple of seasons ago but now there are other teams doing it better.
Bournemouth are averaging 47.1% possession in the league this season but in the last four they have always hovered around 50%. That is the nature of the game that Howe likes his team to play. But the teams that are overperforming this season are the ones who know how to win games without necessarily going toe-to-toe with their opponents. It is no coincidence that the four teams with the lowest average possession statistics in the Premier League – Newcastle United, Burnley, Palace and Sheffield United – are all overachieving. Those teams demonstrate that there is more than one way to skin the Premier League cat, that it is possible to win even with less individual ability and less possession than their opponents.
When there is a disparity in quality between two squads of players, effective counterattacking can help win the day for the underdogs. Manchester United showed that in the derby last week, when they had 28% of possession but annihilated City on the break. If you can figure out a way of playing on the counter, with forwards who can score, but while retaining a good defensive structure, you are going to be fine. Other teams have worked this out but Bournemouth are struggling.
Some of the smaller sides this year seem to be bristling with ambition and ideas. Sheffield United have stayed true to the spirit and the system that won them promotion and are proving a nightmare for some of their opponents. I saw Brighton under Graham Potter systematically exploit Arsenal’s weaknesses to win at the Emirates Stadium, peppering the box with crosses and outfighting the Gunners in midfield. They have the grit, fight and determination a team needs, and are constantly pushing, questioning and evolving. Howe is still only 42, the longest-serving manager in the Premier League, and people are always banging on about his achievements, but I feel that at the moment he keeps being asked new questions and the old answers just are not working any more.
Bournemouth have had some bad luck with injuries which is certainly a factor in their poor performances, but I do not think it is the main reason they are struggling. I think they have lost their way, in terms of their brand of football and have been unable to adapt and find a new way of winning. Key players are not contributing: in a combined 64 starts last season Wilson and Ryan Fraser scored 21 goals and assisted 24; nearly halfway through this season Wilson has five goals but has not scored or assisted since September while Fraser has three assists and a single goal. They have not become worse players, so why are they not performing?
I believe this is the most competitive the Premier League has been in the past five years and it could be that having finished 12th and 14th in the last two seasons – superficially healthy positions but when the level of competition was weaker – Bournemouth were not forced to identify and to rectify the weaknesses that were appearing. Howe’s success in bringing the club into the Premier League made him one of the most highly regarded young coaches in the game. If he manages to turnthis ship round now, it will be one of his finest achievements.
