Boris on the rise

At the end of this first week back after Easter, the feeling of Brexit paralysis at Westminster is more palpable than ever.

A few days ago, it looked like Theresa May might try to break the Brexit impasse by bringing the withdrawal agreement bill for a vote in the Commons next week ahead of the local elections on May 2. But as the FT reports today, that plan has now been abandoned because Downing Street recognises it simply doesn’t have the votes to get the WAB passed at a second reading division.

Instead, ministers are increasingly resigned to the fact that there is no way the WAB — the domestic legislation for Brexit — can be passed any time soon. It therefore looks certain that the European elections on May 23 will proceed, despite Mrs May’s repeated determination to try to stop such a humiliating event for the government and the Conservative party. 

There are signs that Mrs May will try to focus everyone’s attention on yet another deadline after the European elections are over. Her argument will be that if she can win a critical vote in the Commons by June 30 — either on the WAB or on the so-called meaningful vote on Brexit — this would stop British MEPs having to take their seats in the European Parliament on July 2.

Indeed, one ally of the prime minister suggests June 30 is now the “next massive deadline” for passing Mrs May’s Brexit deal. 

But it is very hard to see how things will look any better for the PM once the European elections are behind her. After all, if Mrs May cannot muster sufficient parliamentary support for her Brexit deal in the Commons now, why will things be better after that? 

Instead, the greater likelihood is that, after May 23, Mrs May — and the UK more generally — will enter a more dangerous period for two reasons.

First, if the Conservatives experience a rout at the European elections at the hands of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party, then Conservative backbench opposition to the PM staying in post might become overwhelming.

As Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group consultancy notes today, support for Boris Johnson is now rising on the backbenches because more and more Tory MPs are alarmed at the way their party is losing support among Leave voters because of the repeated delays to Brexit: “The slump in support for Conservatives among Leavers has convinced many previously sceptical Tory backbenchers that he [Johnson] could win these votes back.”

Second, even if Mrs May hangs on, Britain’s failure to make any breakthrough on Brexit is likely to harden the mood of the 27 EU member states. 

In his latest analysis for the European Policy Centre, Andrew Duff, a former member of the European Parliament, says none of the EU27 leaders wants to be blamed for bringing about a no-deal Brexit. But, he says, EU leaders will be alarmed at their June summit if no progress has been made on Brexit in the UK parliament.

“The European Council’s Brexit rain check in June is critical,” he writes. “If by then nothing has moved in London to break the deadlock, the mood of the chiefs will harden, Angela Merkel among them.

Mr Duff argues that neither the EU nor the UK is now fully in control of the Brexit process. “Both are being badly destabilised by Brexit,” he says. “An accidental no deal is a live possibility.”

Those fears over no deal at the next cliff edge — October 31 — will grow if, as many fear, Mr Johnson emerges as the figure who will drive the Brexit process through its next phase.

Further reading

The best place to build a life in English? The Netherlands “The 28 companies that moved to the Amsterdam region because of Brexit last year are small beer. So are the 90 Brexit-afflicted companies that the City says are considering the move. What counts is the long term. The UK has ceased to be the “gateway to Europe” for non-European companies. Even if Brexit is binned, political instability will tarnish Britain’s appeal. The Netherlands is the nearest available substitute.” (Simon Kuper, FT)

Remainers: don’t panic about European elections. Just participating is a win “For a long time the country internalised the apparent truth that we were going to leave the EU; this election helps to normalise the previously unthinkable conclusion that we might stay in. That, above all, is why the government tried everything it could to stop it happening.” (Jonathan Lis, deputy director of the think-tank British Influence, The Guardian)

What a responsible People’s Vote campaign should commit to “What Brexit would mean in practice was never made clear, the parties themselves are split, and there is no majority in parliament for any option. How can we be sure a second referendum will produce less of a mess next time? I am afraid that unless it is thought out very carefully, its effect may be catastrophically harmful for British politics and society.” (Professor Stephen Whitefield, The UK in a Changing Europe)

Hard numbers

Inside the UK’s debt crisis There are more than 8m people in the UK struggling with some degree of problem debt. Yet most will not call a debt helpline until their finances are at breaking point. Read more