Boris Johnson’s personal integrity and his pledge to “get Brexit done” were back in the election spotlight on Monday, after he was accused of breaking a promise not to put a border in the Irish Sea after the UK leaves the EU.
Arlene Foster, Democratic Unionist party leader, said Mr Johnson told her he would not put a trade border down the Irish Sea and she was unimpressed by the prime minister’s claims it would not lead to new checks on trade.
“Once bitten, twice shy, we will certainly be looking for the detail of what this [Brexit] is going to look like,” she told the BBC’s Today programme. If Mr Johnson wins Thursday’s general election she would want to check what he said was “factually correct”.
The Financial Times revealed on Monday a leaked Department for Exiting the EU document which confirmed checks would be needed and that implementing them by the end of 2020 — on Mr Johnson’s timetable — would be a “major” challenge.
“Delivery of the required infrastructure, associated systems, and staffing to implement the requirements of the protocol by December 2020 represents a major strategic, political and operational challenge,” the paper said.
What has Boris Johnson claimed?
Speaking in Kent last week Mr Johnson said: “There will be no checks on goods from GB to Northern Ireland or Northern Ireland to GB.” That claim is contradicted by advice from his own officials.
Asked whether he was unfamiliar with the details of his own policy or was simply misleading voters, Mr Johnson retreated, claiming that the “only checks” would be on goods travelling from Great Britain through Northern Ireland en route to the Irish Republic.
However, last week a leaked Treasury document, highlighted by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, listed a series of new checks and controls that would be required on goods travelling in either direction across the Irish Sea.
What checks will there be on goods moving from NI to GB?
At a minimum, companies in Northern Ireland will need to complete exit summary declarations required for any goods leaving the EU — as the Brexit secretary Steve Barclay has already acknowledged.
The big question is whether the government will be content to leave open a back door into the UK market by waiving customs procedures. The government has said it will not carry out any checks on goods moving west to east.
But as the leaked Treasury slides made clear last week, “unfettered access” could allow exporters from other countries to dodge UK import duties or ship substandard goods into the rest of Great Britain. Even if the UK strikes a free trade deal with the EU, this could still be a problem with imports from non-EU countries.
One example might be Japanese car exporters — who have tariff-free access to the EU — sending cars to Northern Ireland, which could then be driven on to ferries to cross the Irish Sea, avoiding UK tariffs.
Northern Irish producers are also worried by possible regulatory divergence, which could make it harder for them to sell their products in Great Britain — if, for example, the UK relaxed or tightened standards on food produce, while they were still obliged to meet EU rules.
What checks will there be on goods moved from GB to NI?
The UK has agreed to apply EU tariffs and ensure compliance with EU regulations for any goods at risk of being moved on into the EU. This means paperwork (potentially costing from £15 to £56 per consignment, according to estimates by HM Revenue & Customs) and some physical checks.
Alan Winters, director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, estimates that three-quarters of all Northern Irish imports from outside the EU and Great Britain would be subject to EU tariffs — and notes that this is “not easily reconciled with the government’s assertion that Northern Ireland remains within the UK customs territory”.
It may be possible to minimise bureaucracy — through trusted trader schemes, or by using the forms businesses already fill in when booking space on ferries. The UK will also be able to offer rebates on tariffs for small businesses — although the paperwork involved, and the cash flow pressures of waiting for refunds, would limit the benefits.
But all this depends on details still to be decided by a joint committee of UK and EU officials. Business groups have warned that it will almost certainly be impossible to thrash out these questions and put new systems into operation by the end of 2020, the deadline for the UK to secure a trade deal with the EU.
How might this hurt the NI economy?
Extra red tape is less of an issue for trade across the Irish Sea — which tends to involve larger companies using freight forwarders — than it would be on the land border, where trade is of high frequency, low value and largely between small businesses.
But the value of east-west trade is far greater than that which crosses the land border. Introducing any friction matters — and the Treasury warned it could be “highly disruptive” to the Northern Ireland economy.
One big fear is that compliance costs will make it less attractive for Great Britain-based manufacturers to supply retailers in Northern Ireland: the Treasury warned that high street goods could become more expensive, potentially leading the retailers to cut jobs.
The big unknown is how far the UK will set its own course on tariffs and regulation after Brexit. Angela McGowan, chief of CBI Northern Ireland, the business group, said: “The more the UK diverges from Europe in terms of regulatory alignment, the more difficult the protocol will be for Northern Ireland’s economy.”
