A strong first 100 days suggests a strong rest of the year for the S&P 500

Analysts at Bank of America Securities said in a note Friday that the S&P 500’s strong first 100 days paves the way for a bullish rest of the year.

According to the bank’s research, when the S&P 500 is up 10%+ in the first 100 days, the rest of the year is strong: up 76% of the time on an average return of 7.1% (9.3% median).

“Success breeds success. May 23 was the 100 trading day of 2024, and the S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied 10.4% YTD,” declared the bank.

“This equates to SPX 5640 to 5750 into yearend 2024,” adds the firm. “The average and median rest of year returns for all years going back to 1928 of 5.0% and 7.3%, respectively, point to SPX 5530 to 5650 into yearend.”

BofA notes that the S&P 500 being up first 100 days is also bullish for the rest of an election year.

“When the SPX trades higher over the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year tends to be strong with the index up 93% on an average return of 10.1% (SPX 5800) and a median return of 8.9% (SPX 5730),” they explain. “Rest year returns for all election years show the SPX up 88% of the time on average and median returns of 8.8% (SPX 5730) and 8.5% (SPX 5700), respectively.”

The index tends to have a summer rally and Presidential election years can see big summer rallies.

“June-August is the second strongest 3-month period of the year for all years going back to 1928 with the SPX up 65% of the time on an average return of 3.2% (SPX 5430 from the 5/23 close),” BofA states.

“In Presidential election years, the SPX is up 75% of the time from June-August on an average return of 7.3% (SPX 5650 from the 5/23 close).”


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