Is the UK heading towards another general election? As the Brexit debate in parliament becomes mired in confusion, the question is increasingly on the minds of MPs across both sides of the political divide.
General elections were held in 2015 and 2017 so a poll in 2019 would be the third in four years, a sequence without precedent in postwar political history. Here the FT examines why it is an increasingly likely outcome.
Why is talk of an early election growing?
For a long time, the politics surrounding Brexit have been deadlocked. Theresa May, the prime minister, cannot get her withdrawal deal through the House of Commons and a majority of MPs have rejected a no-deal outcome.
Wednesday night’s indicative votes in the Commons to find an alternative to Mrs May’s deal have added to the sense of stalemate. None of the alternatives secured a majority. But the one that did best was former Conservative chancellor Kenneth Clarke’s proposal that Mrs May’s deal should be accompanied by permanent membership of a customs union with the EU.
Does this growing support for a customs union make an early election more likely?
Yes. A permanent customs union could well emerge as the Commons’ preferred choice in a second round of indicative votes set for next Monday, But Mrs May would find it impossible to champion such an arrangement. This is because customs union membership would make it impossible for the UK to strike trade deals with non-EU states, a central rationale for Brexit as far as many Conservatives are concerned.
If Mrs May were to adopt this policy, she would split the cabinet and the Conservative parliamentary party, making it impossible to govern. Conversely, if Mrs May were to resist the will of the Commons, she could face a potentially successful motion of no confidence, bringing down her government.
How could Mrs May navigate her way through this dilemma?
Mrs May could agree a long Article 50 extension with the EU, giving the rationale that the UK needs to hold an election to clarify its position on Brexit. The EU has long made clear that it would agree an Article 50 extension for this reason.
Mrs May could then stand down as Conservative leader, giving the Tories time to hold a contest to appoint a new prime minister who would then lead the party into the poll.
Do the Conservatives want an early election?
Not especially — and this is why some MPs doubt this will be the outcome. For one thing, the extension of Article 50 would mean that the UK must participate in the European parliamentary elections on May 22, a major embarrassment for the Conservatives.
Moreover, even under a new leader, the Conservatives would go into a general election campaign as divided over Brexit policy as they are presently. They could well be punished by Leave voters, 80 per cent of whom blame the Conservatives for making a mess of Brexit, according to an opinion poll by the independent National Centre for Social Research.
The Conservative party is also facing a worsening cash crunch because some donors have held off from contributing while Mrs May remains prime minister. This has prompted concerns over whether the party can afford to fight a snap general election
Labour, by contrast, could unite behind a vague plan for a softer Brexit with a pledge to put it to voters in a confirmatory referendum — a move that might conceivably put Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10.
Do the Conservatives have any other ways out of the crisis other than an election?
The prime minister’s deal could be passed by the Commons, but this looks unlikely. Mrs May could agree to the UK holding a confirmatory referendum on her deal but she has resolutely ruled out this option. She could resort to a no-deal Brexit: the Commons has rejected this approach in numerous votes but these have no legal force and the UK could still drift out of the EU without an agreement.
But will an election resolve anything?
Not necessarily. Opinion polls have largely been static for a long time so there is no guarantee the result would end in anything other than a hung parliament.
