Will Brexit happen on October 31? Date still exists despite UK asking for delay

Boris Johnson has officially asked the EU for a three-month delay to Brexit .

But you shouldn’t scrub the October 31 date off your calendars just yet.

First of all, the Prime Minister might still get his deal through Parliament in time for the deadline, wiping out the need for delay.

And secondly, a final decision on whether to delay Brexit hasn’t been made yet – it’s in 27 EU leaders’ hands.

The Prime Minister and his ally Michael Gove have insisted they can still get Brexit through by October 31, and even claim no-deal is still possible.

Mr Gove has chaired a meeting of the no-deal planning committee and claimed he is “triggering” emergency plan Operation Yellowhammer.

So are their claims actually true?

Here we analyse how Boris Johnson might still be able to ‘get Brexit done’ by October 31 – and where it might fall through.

Can Brexit still happen on October 31?

Yes.

Despite Boris Johnson asking for a delay, the date of October 31 may still happen.

It all depends on two things – whether Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal gets through the Commons, and whether EU leaders agree to grant a delay.

MPs voted to delay Brexit on Saturday, but that was a delay whether or not Boris Johnson actually gets his deal into law.

If his deal gets through by next Thursday, there won’t be any need for a delay – unless it’s a “technical extension” while final parts are ratified by, say, the European Parliamnet. So we can end up leaving the EU much earlier.

If the deal doesn’t get through, then it’s in the hands of 27 EU leaders who’d have to agree unanimously at an emergency summit.

They can either choose to refuse a delay – forcing a no-deal Brexit at 11pm on Halloween – or grant one even though Boris Johnson doesn’t want it.

When will the PM try to get his Brexit deal through?

The Government is set to bring the Withdrawal Agreement Bill – the legislation needed for Brexit – to the Commons on Tuesday.

However, time is running out before the October 31 deadline because the European Parliament would also need to ratify it.

And the Bill would have to pass through MPs’ first vote (which still isn’t guaranteed), dozens of amendments including for a customs union and second referendum, and the pro-Remain House of Lords.

Ministers could try to hold extra late-night or weekend sittings in Parliament (yes, again) to get the legislation through.

Separately, Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg said the Government wants to hold another meaningful vote on Mr Johnson’s deal on Monday.

This wouldn’t be a final decision but it would indicate if he has the numbers.

Commons Speaker John Bercow said he would consider whether to allow the Government’s plans.

Will the Brexit deal pass in the Commons?

The vote is on a knife-edge.

In the current hung Parliament, much will hinge on the PM securing support from Brexiteer Tories who voted down Theresa May’s deal on three occasions, plus the 21 former Conservatives who lost the whip over the issue of a no deal Brexit .

Former Tory cabinet minister Amber Rudd has indicated she would support Mr Johnson’s deal and thought there was a “coalition for getting the Prime Minister’s deal through”.

However, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said he believes the Government does have enough backing, telling The Andrew Marr Show: “”We seem to have the numbers in the House of Commons”.

The DUP is strongly opposed to Mr Johnson’s deal due to the arrangements for Northern Ireland, so the backing of enough Labour MPs in Leave supporting seats will also be vital.  

Does Boris Johnson want a delay?

Despite asking for one, no, he doesn’t.

The Prime Minister sent a a legally-required request to the EU to delay until January 31, deal or no deal, after a vote in Parliament and a law called the ‘Benn Act’ forced him to.

But he refused to sign the letter and sent a second signed note which branded an extension “corrosive”.

That means even though he’s legally asked for a delay, politically, EU leaders must choose to listen either to him or to the UK Parliament. Tough choice.

Will the EU agree to an extension?

It’s widely thought EU leaders would agree an extension to avoid no-deal despite doubts raised by French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.

However, it seems we won’t get a decision straight away.

The Guardian reported the EU would wait and see how things pan out in Parliament before announcing how to proceed.

If the PM gets the Bill through, there could be a special gathering of EU leaders on October 28.

If the deal needs more time at that stage to get through Parliament, leaders could agree to a short “technical” extension.

Would any delay definitely be three months?

No, not necessarily.

First of all, an extension – however long – ends once a Brexit deal is ratified. So if it’s all done 10 days into the period, Brexit can happen then.

Secondly, EU leaders could decide a different length to an extension, either shorter or longer than the three-month one cited in the Benn Act.

One ally of Angela Merkel suggested it should be much longer to avoid having to just extend again from January 31.

Will Boris Johnson be forced to accept an extension?

Yes – if MPs do not vote it down in Parliament.

That is, at least, according to the terms of the Benn Act which the PM could try to subvert or somehow get around.

Why did a “meaningful vote” on the Brexit deal not go ahead on Saturday?

MPs voted by a majority of 16 to back an amendment put forward by former Cabinet minister Sir Oliver Letwin to withhold approval of the latest deal agreed between Mr Johnson and Brussels “unless and until implementing legislation is passed”.

Sir Oliver, who lost the Tory whip for voting against the Government on Brexit previously, said the amendment was “insurance” against the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal by mistake on the scheduled deadline of October 31.

After he lost the vote, the Prime Minister decided not to have the so-called “meaningful vote” on his deal.

Boris Johnson finally agreed a Brexit deal with the EU on 17 October 2019, though it still needs approval by MPs.

The 64-page list of amendments keeps a transition period up to 31 December 2020 and the £39bn divorce bill. But it scraps the Irish backstop, an insurance policy designed at preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland the Republic.

In the backstop’s place would effectively be ‘two borders’ in a hybrid system:

1. Northern Ireland and Britain would share a legal customs territory – technically forcing customs checks on goods crossing the 310-mile border with the Republic. But in practice, to avoid checks at the border, the checks will instead happen when goods reach Northern Ireland on the island of Ireland. Critics say this puts a customs border across the Irish Sea – more of this below.

 

2. Northern Ireland and the Republic would share some EU single market rules – forcing checks on manufactured and agricultural products crossing the Irish Sea.

The Northern Ireland Assembly – known as Stormont – will get a vote every four years on whether to let EU law continue. But this vote could be passed by a simple majority – denying the DUP a veto on staying under EU laws long-term.

Meanwhile commitments on workers’ rights are deprioritised – moved to the non-legally-binding Political Declaration for agreement later.

For a full explainer click here.