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Will Boris Johnson call an October election?


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Is Britain heading for an October general election? The morning after Boris Johnson’s arrival at Downing Street, the question is swirling around Westminster.

It’s being discussed because Mr Johnson has appointed Dominic Cummings, the key polling strategist for Leave, to a top position in Downing Street. Mr Johnson’s speech outside No 10 on Wednesday evening also had a strong pre-election tub-thumping feel.

Until now, the assumption of most observers has been that Mr Johnson wouldn’t want an early poll. He has always insisted that Brexit needs to be completed first. Then, if he concludes a deal, he can force a “celebratory” election next year.

Mr Johnson clearly does want to try and implement a deal this autumn if possible. He made that clear on Thursday in his maiden address to the House of Commons as prime minister. The focus of his effort right now is on forcing the EU to think again. But the UK and EU are so far apart, that some (such as John Springford) see a different chain of events unfolding.

Under this scenario, Mr Johnson spends the next new few weeks going through the motions. He takes his revised Brexit deal to the EU and is rebuffed. He then demands a no-deal Brexit and is rebuffed again — this time by a majority of MPs who block it happening in the Commons.

At that point, Mr Johnson would move to a general election, arguing that the Conservatives need a popular mandate to force no-deal through. And the Commons would have given him the excuse for going to a national vote.

I can see the attractions of this scenario for Mr Johnson. By going to the country on a no-deal mandate, he would have the support — formal or otherwise — of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party.

This autumn, he is also certain to find the opposition parties in disarray. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are forming a pro-Remain coalition. But Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is confused over its Brexit position and other parties won’t want to do an electoral pact with him.

One more reason why it could pay for Mr Johnson to go early: the UK could be in recession by next year, irrespective of what happens on Brexit. This makes it dangerous to wait.

It’s still a scenario with plenty of risks for Mr Johnson. If he campaigns in an election on a no-deal mandate, he will alienate many Conservatives who will defect to the Lib Dems. The Conservative party in Scotland would be in uproar.

To make up for that, Mr Johnson would need the support of working class Labour voters in the Midlands and the north of England who want a hard Brexit. That’s by no means assured.

The safest course for Mr Johnson would be to do a deal with the EU that alters Theresa May’s pact, forcing the hard Brexiters to accept that it’s not quite everything he had promised.

But right now the new PM’s positions are maximalist and it feels like he’s in general election mode.

Further reading

Here is what awaits the new chancellor

Sajid Javid’s first briefing will recommend a focus on five domestic risks which could upset economic harmony over the next few years and play down three dangers. (Chris Giles, FT)

The civil service must speak truth to Boris (and his Cabinet)

(Jill Rutter, The Institute for Government)

Could the Johnson premiership prove to be the shortest ever?

(Tom Clark, Prospect)

Hard numbers

Brexit uncertainty blamed for fall in commercial property investment. Read more



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