Will Boris Johnson betray Nigel Farage?

Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are now Brexit buddies. The Brexit party leader opted to stand down almost half of his candidates in the UK’s upcoming election to ensure that the Leave vote is not split in hundreds of Conservative-held seats. The decision is a decent boost for the prime minister, but it has implications for what happens if he wins the December 12 poll.

It was a short video, released by Mr Johnson on Sunday evening, that apparently won over Mr Farage. The prime minister made two tough commitments that pleased his Leave rivals: he will not extend the transition period beyond the end of 2020, and he will pursue a Canada-style free trade deal with scant political alignment with the EU bloc.

Mr Johnson has hinted at both before. With Mr Farage pledging to hold him to account, he will be under significant pressure to deliver on both, or face a resurgent Brexit party. These pledges put the UK on course towards another Brexit cliffedge in 2020, as few believe that a comprehensive trade deal between the UK and the EU can be wrapped up within 12 months.

Let us say that Mr Johnson wins the election with a slender Tory majority, thanks to the Brexit party standing aside. He will pass his Brexit deal through the House of Commons at a breakneck pace, probably by Christmas. Then the European Parliament will pass the deal, likely sometime in January. The UK would finally depart the bloc on January 31.

Both sides would then limber up for trade talks. While Brexit Britain would be eager to make progress, the EU first has to agree a mandate between its 27 members, a process that could take several months. The prime minister’s commitment to a loose free-trade deal would inevitably lead to clashes over level-playing field provisions, lockstep alignment on rules and regulations. A quick’n’dirty deal, as some Brexiters eagerly speak of, would be impossible.

Before you know, it would be July 2020: the point at which Mr Johnson has to decide whether to extend the transition period for at least another year. If he says no, as pledged in that video, the UK would head towards a crash exit from the transition period at the end of the year — something Mr Farage would be content with.

But the worst-kept secret in Westminster is that Mr Johnson will do all that he can to avoid no deal. His gut will be to keep the trade talks going and, de facto, keep the UK in the EU for months and years to come. He might face pressure from within his own party, particularly from the European Research Group of Tory MPs, to cut off talks. But if he wins a convincing majority, he will have the political capital to extend and talk, extend and talk.

The Conservative manifesto is not due to be released for another couple of weeks. Only then will we gain a proper sense of how much wriggle room Mr Johnson has left himself on avoiding a crash exit. The prime minister managed to sail through the October 31 deadline with little damage to his reputation: he may well be able to do it again.

But if the trade talks go into 2021 and beyond, Mr Farage will feel betrayed. He will have another opportunity to hop back into frontline politics and claim Mr Johnson has sold out. And even if there is a deal, Mr Farage would likely morph into the UK’s chief protectionist, decrying any free-trade deal a sellout. No matter what happens next with Brexit, the grievances will go on.

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