Politics

Will another Brexit delay lead to a general election?


Another Brexit delay seems certain, Boris Johnson’s departure plan is stalled, and the public still don’t know if they will be called to vote in a pre-Christmas election. So what are the various possibilities?

Could an election be decided tomorrow?

In theory, yes; in reality, no. The government has tabled a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA) during which MPs debate and vote on a general election for 12 December. However, under the FTPA only the votes of two-thirds or more of all MPs can trigger an election, and with Labour still resistant, the numbers are not there. The government twice sought an election in this way in early September, and was thwarted.

What is the FTPA, and how does it work?

Passed in 2011 under the Tory-Lib Dem coalition, this is aimed at cementing the principle of five-yearly government terms. Whereas in the past prime ministers could simply seek an election from the Queen whenever happened to appear electorally advantageous to them, the FTPA allows early polls only if a particular motion is tabled and two-thirds of MPs – at least 434 of them – back the plan. More than a third of all MPs are Labour, meaning the party has an effective veto.

Are there other ways to trigger an election?

Yes. The main alternative – one now mooted by both the Lib Dems and government – is either to amend the FTPA or pass a separate, one-line bill specifying that there will be an election on a certain date. The advantage of this route is that, as a traditional bill, it only requires a straightforward majority to pass the Commons. The issue for Johnson is that – unlike a motion under the FTPA – a bill can be amended, for example to extend the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds, or EU nationals. Finally, Johnson could always resign, or call a no-confidence motion in himself. However, the FTPA dictates that rather than this triggering an immediate election, MPs would get a chance to try to form an alternative government.

Could there be a bill for an election?

Possibly, but as with so many things with the Brexit impasse the main obstacle is trust. Downing Street rejected the Lib Dem/SNP plan for such an election as a stunt, since it would require Johnson to abandon any plans to get his Brexit-enabling withdrawal agreement bill through the Commons before the vote. If time runs out for the bill, No 10 could potentially agree to an election anyway, but would want assurances about no amendments being tabled.

What would be the government’s ideal election scenario?

Given the choice, Johnson would pilot the withdrawal agreement bill through parliament and go to the public as the PM who unblocked the Brexit log-jam. However, Downing Street would still be happy to fight the much-touted “people versus parliament” election if MPs block the bill. The Tories do, however, want any election sooner rather than later.

How about the Lib Dems and SNP?

The Lib Dems’ first priority is fighting an election where Brexit has not been decided. As a party pitched squarely at remain voters, its appeal could diminish if people believe that the argument has been settled, however unhappy they might be with the outcome. For the SNP, meanwhile, there is speculation that the party would prefer an election before the trial in January of its former leader, Alex Salmond, on charges including attempted rape and sexual assault.

And what of Labour?

Opinion is very much split. The public view is that the party is ready for an election, but first wants assurances that there will not be a no-deal Brexit. The scale of these assurances has gradually broadened, so now Labour wants Johnson to publicly rule out no deal not only in January but also if no permanent trade deal is reached by the end of 2020. Behind this, some in the leadership team are more bullish whereas others, including many Labour MPs, are worried about the prospects for a party currently lagging 15% or more in the polls. Similar-size deficits were overcome in the 2017 election, but wary MPs worry that lightning will not strike twice.



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