So what just happened?
In brief: the bill seeking to put into law Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal was passed by MPs on its second reading, the initial opportunity that MPs have to vote on a bill. It passed by 329 votes to 299, the first time the Commons has formally approved a Brexit plan. However, only 20 minutes later, MPs rejected the government’s so-called programme motion, which set out the accelerated timetable for the bill, by 308 votes in favour to 322 against.
Is it good news for the government that it has won a Brexit deal vote?
In one sense, yes, and responding to the 30-vote majority for the withdrawal agreement bill, or WAB, Johnson praised MPs for having “embraced a deal”. But the defeat on the programme motion by 14 votes – a heavier defeat than many expected – is a definite reverse, and could end up scuppering the entire process.
What is a programme motion anyway, and why does it matter?
A non-amendable motion presented by ministers after a bill’s second reading, these set out the timetable for the rest of its progress through the Commons. They were brought in after endless debates over the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. This particular programme motion was important to the government because it argued the compressed timetable – allowing only three Commons days for the entire process – was vital if the UK was to leave the EU by the current deadline of 31 October. Many MPs argued this was far too short a time.
Which MPs were crucial in the two votes?
Primarily, it was Brexit-minded Labour MPs, ex-Tory rebels, and the DUP. Nineteen Labour MPs, mainly from leave-supporting areas, supported the second reading, but only five backed the programme motion. Of the former Tories ejected last month, nine voted against the motion, including ex-chancellor Philip Hammond, who seems to have definitively separated himself from the party. Finally, the 10 DUP MPs opposed the government on both votes, with Johnson paying the price of his revised Brexit plans for Northern Ireland.
So what happens now?
Under a backbench-instigated law intended to ward off a no-deal Brexit, Johnson wrote to the EU on Saturday to formally request a delay to departure until 31 January, despite the PM not wanting this to happen. Responding in the Commons, Johnson said he would “pause this legislation” and await information from the EU on a possible delay. In the interim, he said, no-deal preparations would be ramped up. For now, the bill is “in limbo”, Speaker John Bercow said, using what he said was the technical term.
Is the bill getting pulled?
Downing Street had strongly hinted this would be the response to losing the programme motion. However, this seems to have been a lever to pressure MPs into backing the motion. Speaking during the debate ahead of the votes, Johnson pledged he would pull the bill and seek an election in the event of a delay until January or longer. But he did not promise to do this in any circumstances, holding open the possibility of a brief delay being acceptable. After the vote, Johnson was similarly equivocal, saying: “One way or another, we will leave the EU with this deal.”
Does all this make a general election more likely?
Probably. If the EU insists on a lengthy delay, which is put in place, Johnson could push for an election. Crucially, if an imminent no-deal Brexit was now averted, Labour would be expected to now back an election, making it happen. However, for all his protestations against a longer delay, the 30-vote majority for his Brexit deal could tempt Johnson into trying to push the bill through parliament before an election, allowing him to stand as the prime minister who delivered departure.
Did the government offer any last-minute concessions?
Yes. Closing the debate for the government, the justice secretary, Robert Buckland, promised a last-minute shift aimed at Tory waverers, to give parliament more of a say on avoiding a possible no-deal situation when the transition period ends in December 2020. But this was not enough to rescue the vote.
What will MPs do for the rest of this week?
On Wednesday and Thursday, when they should have been finishing off the stages of the WAB, they will instead return to debating the Queen’s speech. Remember that? The government’s planned legislative programme was presented on Monday last week, but the scheduled five-day debate was suspended for the WAB debate. It now comes back.
