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MPs last night backed an amendment that allows them to take control of Commons business and stage a series of “indicative” votes on the way forward on Brexit.
Here are the different options that MPs will vote on tomorrow:
Common Market 2.0
AKA the Norway-Plus model, it means a soft Brexit and a close economic relationship with the EU, staying in the EEA, keeping the single market and the “plus” of staying in the border-free customs union.
Backers: Supported by key figures behind the indicative votes including Sir Oliver Letwin and the group’s whip, ex-minister Nicholas Boles, plus Labour’s Lucy Powell and Stephen Kinnock. Jeremy Corbyn could pivot behind it in the last rounds, making it a frontrunner.
People’s Vote
Support has crept up for the purist Remainer plan — a new referendum to overturn or confirm the last one.
Backers: The Independent Group, the Scottish Nationalists and the Liberal Democrats would all vote for it. It is well short of a majority as things stand.
Kyle-Wilson referendum
A more politically subtle variety of second referendum, where MPs support Theresa May’s deal but she must put it to a public vote, with remaining in the EU as the alternative option.
Backers: PV MPs could pivot to it and, crucially, Labour may whip its MPs behind it. It has a chance of a majority if Labour MPs in Leave areas do not rebel.
Canada-style free trade deal
Popular with the Tory Right but hampered by the EU requirement for a backstop which makes it unnegotiable in the eyes of senior ministers.
Backers: The ERG and many middle-ground Tories but most MPs have conceded it stands no chance with the EU unless a backstop is added.
Managed No-Deal
Although the Commons voted to dismiss a no-deal Brexit on WTO terms, Right-wingers may try to put down a variety of minimalist deal such as the Malthouse Compromise. However, the EU has made clear they are unicorns unless equipped with a backstop.
Backers: The ERG would prefer such a plan, but the chances of getting a Commons majority is weak because of fears of economic impact.
Labour’s customs union
Jeremy Corbyn’s plan is to have the “benefits” of the single market and to join “a” customs union. It is not clear if the Labour leader will table the option himself but would whip it if it was on the ballot slip. Donald Tusk has called this approach “promising” but critics say it is vague.
Backers: Labour MPs but not other opposition parties and certainly not many Conservatives.
Theresa May’s deal
Despite two defeats by 149 and 230 votes, the PM’s blueprint may increase support if Right-wingers are spooked by the idea of a softer Brexit or a referendum.
Backers: The Government payroll vote will support it if whipped but fewer MPs will bother if not. However, in later rounds of voting it stands a chance of gaining ground as a compromise plan.
