It’s been three years since a non-‘Big Three’ member won a Grand Slam title, with Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal on a combined 11-major winning streak.
Stan Wawrinka was the last man to upset the applecart – beating Djokovic to win the 2016 US Open – and tennis is crying out for a rising superstar to really take the bull by the horns, down the legends of the sport and announce the arrival of the next generation.
Will it happen in New York? Probably not.
Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been a cut above the competition at this level for some time, with the latter particularly dominant in recent times.
Indeed, Djokovic has won four of the past five Grand Slam titles – with only the French Open escaping his grasp – and he is the favourite to defend his title with good reason.
That said, it’s Nadal who appears to have come off best in the draw. He’ll avoid both of his greatest rivals until the final at the earliest and other potentially testing obstacles – namely Stefanos Tsitsipas, Dominic Thiem and Nick Kyrgios – will eliminate each other before any potential semi-final clash.
Federer may have won more titles than three-time champions Djokovic and Nadal but it’s been 11 years since he last got his hands on the trophy and Flushing Meadows has not been a particularly happy hunting ground in recent times.
Three tough years on the spin have seen him fail to reach the semi-finals and there’s a sense he may be somewhat undercooked heading into the tournament, having played just two matches on hard courts since losing to Djokovic in the Wimbledon final.
That may not prove to be quite as big a factor as the Wimbledon defeat itself.
‘I don’t think the lack of matchplay is as much of a concern just as much as the mental hangover from a match like Wimbledon,’ the American told Metro.co.uk.
‘In 2016 he missed the last six months of the year, came back and his first pro tournament after being off with no matches going in was the Australian Open, which he won so, you know, it’s just a very Roger like way of doing things.
‘My concern would be over the mental side of getting over a loss like that as opposed to the lack of matches from Roger.’
But Federer – ever cool, calm and collected in press – views things rather differently and believes, after overcoming the initial disappointment, that he can take confidence from his performances during the British summer.
‘I’ve been there before, had some tough losses along the way,’ the 38-year-old said. ‘So many great wins, as well. I was just more upset rather than being sad. I think being upset made me get over that finals much easier than being sad, dwelling over it too much.
‘Honestly, I’ve had a great run through the clay, on the grass as well, that I was not going to be too down on myself. I hope it’s obviously going to help me for here.’
The group of players who could actually win the title does feel rather small.
Daniil Medvedev has been the most impressive player in the American hardcourt summer but is yet to offer much in best-of-five tennis. Should he crack that nut, he is capable of causing Djokovic problems in the quarter-finals.
One suspects Tsitsipas’ run would be too tough to overcome, while Alexander Zverev’s form is showing little signs of improvement. The idea of Kyrgios capturing the form that saw him win in Washington and reproducing it over best-of-five seems unlikely.
Thiem is probably the most likely to make a dent at this event and proved in 2018 he can prove a real match for high-end opposition on these slower hard courts.
Still, the likelihood remains he would have to beat two members of the ‘Big Three’ back-to-back. It’s a challenge no one looks set to complete any time soon.
So, as ever, it appears to be a question of which of the three will win the title?
Despite Nadal’s favourable draw, Djokovic still seems a cut above at Slams. He will be the man to stop.
