Football

Unpredictability stalks the Premier League – except at the very top | Steve James


Some quirky things are happening in English football’s top flight. For the first time since 1955, 15 or more clubs have won one of their opening three matches. Another Opta stat doing the rounds on social media on the weekend, courtesy of Duncan Alexander, revealed that the last time 19 or more teams had three points after three games was in 1981-82, the first season after Jimmy Hill and others had successfully campaigned for the introduction of three points for a win.

So, if English football is travelling back in time, what does it mean? The short and simple answer is probably not a lot, other than you can throw a blanket over the majority of the clubs in the Premier League right now, so much so that Newcastle, who enjoyed a terrific win at Tottenham on Sunday, are second from bottom of the table and also one point off fifth.

Duncan Alexander
(@oilysailor)

First time since 1981-82 that 19 or more teams have had 3pts after 3 games. Then 20/22 teams had done it, all of them utterly confused about Jimmy Hill’s new ‘three points for a win’ rule. https://t.co/PZenZiVCmZ pic.twitter.com/FfjblV77Jj


August 25, 2019

Watford, who are the only team without at least three points and already in danger of being cut adrift after losing their first three fixtures (said tongue-in-cheek, to be clear), travel to St James’ Park on Saturday for a meeting between the bottom two. An early relegation six-pointer. Or, depending on whether your glass of Newcastle Brown Ale is half full or half empty, a chance for Steve Bruce’s side to push for a place in the top six before the international break.

That so many clubs are already up and running (there was only one previous occasion when 18 of the 20 Premier League clubs had registered a win at this stage), means the table has an unusually congested feel, even allowing for the fact we are talking about statistics after such a ridiculously small sample of games and at a time of the season when the kids haven’t even gone back to school.

On the face of it the current state of play is no bad thing. Leaving aside the football accumulators that are being ruined, there appears to be much to welcome about the idea that Crystal Palace can win at Manchester United only six days after they lost at newly promoted Sheffield United, and that Newcastle, supposedly in crisis after being turned over by Norwich, can pick themselves up and vanquish Spurs, the Champions League runners up. After all, who wants predictability?

The problem – if it is a problem – is higher up. Right at the top, in fact, where everything points to another two-horse race involving the same thoroughbreds who galloped clear last season. Yes, these are still very early days, but it already feels as though Liverpool and Manchester City are once again going to be playing in their own little league, largely because of their own brilliance but also as a result of the inadequacies of others.

Indeed, neither club will have got too excited about Spurs struggling to break down Newcastle or Palace strolling through United’s expensively assembled new defence 24 hours earlier.

The form of the top two is formidable. Liverpool’s win over Arsenal was their 12th in succession in the Premier League. City have taken 49 points out of the last 51, with the only blot on the copybook being the dramatic, VAR-dominated 2-2 draw at home against Spurs the weekend before last when the shot count was 30-3 in favour of Pep Guardiola’s team.

Uncharacteristically, and much to the annoyance of Fantasy Football fans everywhere, Liverpool and City have been unusually generous in defence this season. Liverpool have conceded in each match and Harry Wilson’s brilliant free-kick for Bournemouth on Sunday means Ederson has already picked the ball out of the net three times for City.

That is the good news for the chasing pack, if such a thing exists. The bad news is that Liverpool are averaging three goals per game at the other end of the pitch and City are just above that ratio. Perhaps most sobering is that neither City nor Liverpool have really got into their stride yet.

In truth, the key question at the start of this campaign was less about how City and Liverpool would fare and more to do with whether the other members of that established “big six” could close the cavernous gap that opened up last season when Chelsea, in third place, finished 25 points behind Jürgen Klopp’s runners-up.

Reading a lot into a little is a dangerous game and, as Alan Hansen once discovered, August is no time to be writing off anyone’s chances. Equally, it really is hard to see much changing at the top in the near future, especially when Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Spurs have already lost as many games as Liverpool did in the whole of last season.





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