The UK’s preparations for COP26, the United Nations’ climate conference, have had a rocky start.
The head of the summit, Claire O’Neill, was unceremoniously fired just days before the event’s launch amid rumours that the meeting’s venue could shift from Glasgow to another city. More than a week later, she was replaced by Alok Sharma, a little-known business minister appointed after the post was turned down by David Cameron, the former prime minister, and William Hague, a former cabinet minister.
The stakes of COP26 could not be higher for a post-Brexit “global Britain” anxious to prove that it can be a big hitter outside the EU. Failure to get the summit right would not only be a political embarrassment, it could also be a lost opportunity to curb runaway climate change
“This is the most important global convening of recent years,” said Rachel Kyte, the UN secretary-general’s former special representative for sustainable energy. If the UK were unable to rally world leaders and new climate plans, “it will be an extraordinary moment of failed diplomacy or underperforming, an enormous own goal not only for the country but for the planet”.
Strong leadership is especially important after last year’s climate meeting in Madrid failed to reach an agreement on how international carbon markets might work. Since then optimism that the world can halt man-made climate change has sagged.
Officials say the UK must urgently re-energise the talks and persuade lawmakers around the world to draw up more ambitious carbon emissions reduction plans, but climate experts fear that the UK has yet even to decide on its goals for the summit. Speaking at a conference last week, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, defined a successful COP in vague terms of “action which is irreversible, accelerating and increasing”.
Richard Kinley, a former senior official at the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, said: “It’s clear what’s required: a ramping-up of action and ambition.”
Mr Sharma is not quite the high-profile figure or veteran glad-hander that some had been expecting as COP president. Instead, the mild-mannered former Remainer has risen virtually without trace — without scandals, faux pas or highly memorable political achievements. His record on environmental issues is patchy, and he notably voted against setting a decarbonisation target for the UK in 2016.
The climate change community, which had hoped a political “heavyweight” would replace Ms O’Neill, has reacted to Mr Sharma’s appointment with cautious optimism but stressed that he had a huge amount of work to do to put preparations back on track.
“We are significantly behind target,” said James Cameron, senior adviser to climate change investment firm Pollination and adviser to the COP22 and COP23 hosts, Morocco and Fiji. “We should have presented our team, themes and plan for the year already.”
More important to COP 26’s success than Mr Sharma’s personal record is whether he has the prime minister’s ear and the government considers the summit a priority, experts say.
Mr Kinley, at the UN Climate Change Secretariat, pointed out that France was so successful with COP21 in 2015 — when the landmark Paris climate accord was signed — in part because its government invested “a huge effort over two years” to cultivate relationships with climate negotiators worldwide and promote the event to the public.
With only nine months to prepare, Mr Sharma has a daunting task ahead. In the lead- up to the summit, he must encourage countries to draw up the plans they will present at Glasgow. He must also have a strong second-in-command who can travel to international capitals and negotiate when the new business secretary, who already has a bulging in-tray, is busy at home.
Some of this work has already started. Speaking at a climate conference last week, Nick Bridge, the foreign secretary’s special representative for climate change, said the Westminster COP team had “done our in-house strategic thinking” on how to engage other countries.
“Every ambassador and high commissioner” is working out how to persuade leaders to upgrade their commitments, but are working to “an incredibly short timeframe”, he said.
There are also a number of opportunities for Britain’s COP organisers to build relationships ahead of the summit, including China’s biodiversity conference in October and the G7 and G20 summits.
“There are several stages this year on which the prime minister will be standing” that could be used to “increase the chance of success”, said Pollination’s Mr Cameron. “The French were really good at that,” he added.
In addition to international diplomacy, the British organisers must engage businesses and communities at home and send clear signals to the market on the shift to a greener economy, said Polly Billington, director of local government climate network UK100.
She added that to be a credible host, the government must outline how it intends to reach its legally binding target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and low-carbon initiatives must be supported in the forthcoming budget.
Aiming to get a majority of countries to join the UK in a “net zero club” could be “an important part of how we think about COP26”, Thomas Hale, associate professor of global public policy at the University of Oxford, told a climate conference last week.
With Mr Sharma’s appointment, the pressure to deliver in Glasgow is already increasing and expectations are high. Despite the challenges, Mr Kinley said he was hopeful. “After every huge [COP] failure,” people “seem to come to their senses and the next COP is a success”, he said. “But the British government is going to have to work.”
