UK jobs market 'loses its shine' as employment growth slows – business live

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

We know the UK economy is still growing, but is it still creating enough jobs?

After Monday’s forecast-beating GDP report, attention is turning to the latest labour market report. It’ll show how many jobs were created and lost in the three months to July, and whether wages are still growing faster that prices in the shops.

Economists expect a mixed picture. On the upside, the jobless rate is expected to have stuck at 3.9% – close to a 44-year low.

But job creation could have slowed sharply over the summer. The City expects employment rose by 55,000 during the quarter, down from a more impressive 115,000 a month ago.

A weak reading might show that UK companies are cutting back on new hires, as they watch the Brexit crisis play out.

Earnings growth may also be weakening. Basic pay is tipped to have risen by 3.8% over the last year, down from 3.9% (an 11-year high) in the 12 months to June.

Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada says the wage picture is crucial:

Our expectation is that employment growth will remain positive again this month and the unemployment rate will remain at 3.9%. However, the key focus will be on wages.

Our expectation is that regular pay growth (i.e., excluding bonuses) will slip back a little this month, but that shouldn’t detract too much from the bigger picture, which is that pay growth remains firm overall. That is certainly the message that the Bank of England is taking away from the moment.

In addition, that pay growth supporting domestically generated inflation is the main reason that the MPC can remain on hold as it awaits clarity on Brexit.

Also coming up today

Fashion chain JD Sports, gambling operation 888 and equipment rental firm Ashtead are reporting results this morning (more on all that shortly).

Stock markets look subdued, as investors wonder whether to expect fresh stimulus measures from the world’s central bankers (the ECB could start this ball rolling on Thursday).

Plus it’s the first day of the Frankfurt Motor Show, where manufacturers will be promoting new models. Expect a big focus on new electric cars, and plenty of anxiety about trade wars, Brexit and the global slowdown.

The agenda

• All day: Frankfurt Motor Show. Expect lots of shiny new models, and worries about Brexit
• 9.30am: UK Labour Market Report: Jobless rate expected to remain at 3.9%, but job creation could slow to 55,000 from 115,000