THERESA May’s grip on power is slipping by the day as her own MPs revolt over her handling of Brexit negotiations.
After the PM’s Brexit deal was trounced in Parliament, could another General Election really be on the cards? Here’s the latest.
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Is another General Election on the cards?
Downing Street is adamant an election won’t happen but the PM may be forced to choose between calling one now or having one forced upon her later — if the Brexit deadlock continues.
Theresa May is now looking to extend the UK’s departure from the UK to June 30 — four months after the planned leaving date.
MPs may be keen to avoid another election amid the Brexit chaos, though Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has made calls for a fresh call.
May can no longer face a no confidence vote from her own party until December this year, after narrowly surviving a motion against her.
What other attempts were made for a General Election?
When May’s “meaningful vote” failed to get through Parliament on January 15, Labour hard-left leader Jeremy Corbyn seized the opportunity to bring a motion of no confidence in May’s Government.
He was hoping to trigger a poll, but May’s Government narrowly survived the test.
Corbyn would technically be allowed to bring as many motions of no confidence as he likes against the PM, but he will have to be judicious if he wants to succeed.
If he did pursue this option again and the motion of no confidence succeeded, a fortnight would have to pass without the House passing a confidence motion in the new Government.
The motion would pass only if two-thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons (currently 434 out of 650 MPs) vote in favour.
Below are latest election odds given by William Hill as of March 28, 2019:
Latest election odds
- Odds on election in 2019 – 11/10
- Odds on election in 2020 – 7/2
- Odds on election in 2021 – 10/1
- Odds on election in 2022 or later – 2/1
How many no confidence letters could trigger a General Election?
Yet another way to trigger a General Election would be if the PM lost a vote of confidence in her own leadership.
May narrowly survived this vote in December 2018 after she pulled her ‘meaningful vote’ at the eleventh hour, maddening her Tory colleagues.
According to Conservative party rules a vote of no confidence in the leader can be triggered if 15 per cent of Tory MPs write demanding it.
If she had lost the vote she’d have had to step down, and the winner of the party leadership contest would be crowned the next prime minister.
But he or she could find it difficult to govern without a majority and would face huge pressure to seek a mandate from the public.
When could a general election take place?
Elections in this country take place on a Thursday.
By law, Parliament is dissolved 25 working days before a general election.
Now that Theresa May has offered to stand down if MPs back her deal, a new leadership contest could theoretically happen the day Britain leaves the EU.
But it is unclear if a change of Tory leadership would precipitate a General Election.
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