The UK economy shrank 0.1 per cent in March as the country lurched towards a potentially disorderly exit from the EU, official figures show.
However, growth picked up to 0.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, up from 0.2 per cent in the previous quarter and in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.
The quarterly figure is less volatile and prone to adjustment than the single-month figure but the trend over the three months was downwards.
Growth was 0.5 per cent in January, 0.2 per cent in February and -0.1 per cent in March.
Much of the expansion was down to a 2.2 per cent boost to manufacturing, its quickest quarterly growth for more than 30 years.
1/15 Pork
There will be tariffs on pork in order to protect British farmers
Getty
2/15 Cheese
There will be tariffs in place on some cheeses including €22.10/100kg of cheddar, €19.10/100kg of processed cheese and €18.60/100kg on some blue cheeses
Getty
3/15 Milk
There will be no tariffs in place on milk
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4/15 Car Parts
There will be no tariffs on car parts imported from Europe
PA
5/15 Cars
However finished cars will face tariffs of 10.6%
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6/15 Alcoholic drinks
There will be no tariffs on alcoholic drinks – except on some rums due to ingredients used in their distilling process
Getty
7/15 Beef
There will be tariffs on beef in order to protect British farmers
Getty
8/15 Fish
There will be no tariffs on many types of fish including cod, haddock, salmon and sea bass
Getty
9/15 Fruit and vegetables
There will be no tariffs on almost all fruit and vegetables
Getty
10/15 Chocolate
There will be no tariffs on chocolate or other cocoa products
Getty
11/15 Poultry
There will be tariffs on poultry in order to protect British farmers
Getty
12/15 Ceramics
There will be some tariffs in place on ceramis
Getty
13/15 Steel
There will be no tariffs on steel
Getty
14/15 Coal
There will be no tariffs on coal
Getty
15/15 Lamb/Mutton
There will be tariffs on the meat of sheep in order to protect British farmers
Getty
1/15 Pork
There will be tariffs on pork in order to protect British farmers
Getty
2/15 Cheese
There will be tariffs in place on some cheeses including €22.10/100kg of cheddar, €19.10/100kg of processed cheese and €18.60/100kg on some blue cheeses
Getty
3/15 Milk
There will be no tariffs in place on milk
Getty
4/15 Car Parts
There will be no tariffs on car parts imported from Europe
PA
5/15 Cars
However finished cars will face tariffs of 10.6%
Getty
6/15 Alcoholic drinks
There will be no tariffs on alcoholic drinks – except on some rums due to ingredients used in their distilling process
Getty
7/15 Beef
There will be tariffs on beef in order to protect British farmers
Getty
8/15 Fish
There will be no tariffs on many types of fish including cod, haddock, salmon and sea bass
Getty
9/15 Fruit and vegetables
There will be no tariffs on almost all fruit and vegetables
Getty
10/15 Chocolate
There will be no tariffs on chocolate or other cocoa products
Getty
11/15 Poultry
There will be tariffs on poultry in order to protect British farmers
Getty
12/15 Ceramics
There will be some tariffs in place on ceramis
Getty
13/15 Steel
There will be no tariffs on steel
Getty
14/15 Coal
There will be no tariffs on coal
Getty
15/15 Lamb/Mutton
There will be tariffs on the meat of sheep in order to protect British farmers
Getty
Some of the boost is likely to have been the result of stockpiling ahead of Brexit as manufacturers sought to build up supplies in anticipation of disruption, the ONS said.
However, it added that it was “difficult to unpick” the temporary Brexit effect from other factors.
Growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than three-quarters of the UK economy and is not prone to the stockpiling effect, slowed to 0.3 per cent from 0.4 per cent.
Services covers a broad range of activities from accountancy to hospitality and leisure, which collectively make up the bulk of UK economic output.
Construction grew 1 per cent in the first quarter but industry figures warned that continued political and economic uncertainty was having a negative impact on output.
Growth was driven by repair and maintenance rather than new projects, said Clive Docwra, managing director of construction consultants McBains.
“There was no growth in new work across the first quarter of the year, including a decrease in private commercial and housing work,” he said.
“This reflects that many investors are still deferring decisions on projects until Brexit is resolved – and we’re perhaps further away than ever on certainty and finality in that regard.”
The Office for National Statistics said: “The strength in quarterly growth is in part due to the low December 2018 monthly growth in the base period, which makes the current period look stronger in comparison.”
On a longer-term measure, the UK economy was 1.8 per cent larger between January and March 2019 than it was in the same quarter a year ago.
The Institute of Directors said the improved quarterly growth number could be a “flash in the pan”.
“Some businesses brought activity forward early this year in preparation for leaving the EU, so higher stocks and earlier orders have artificially bumped up the growth numbers,” said Tej Parikh, the IoD’s senior economist.
“In Q2 many firms will be keen to run down their Brexit caches, which will drag on economic growth. Keen consumers also played a key role in lifting sales in the first quarter, but barring temporary boosts due to weather, households will overall remain cautious in the months ahead.”
