“There was some good news on the economy this morning ahead of the Brexit vote and Spring Statement, as monthly GDP bounced back more strongly than expected in January after falling sharply in December.
“All major sectors of the economy saw a return to positive growth in January, with a particularly marked turnaround in construction sector output as a 2.8% fall in December was entirely reversed in January.
“The volatility of the monthly data for December and January reinforces the importance of focusing most attention on the rolling three month average GDP growth rate. This remained unchanged at 0.2% in the three months to January, the same as in the three months to December.
“The big picture therefore remains one of continued sluggish but positive growth in the UK economy, with business investment held back by ongoing uncertainty over Brexit. Consumer spending remains more robust given the continued strength of the jobs market and rising earnings growth. There are no signs yet that uncertainty over Brexit has pushed the economy as a whole into recession. If an orderly Brexit can be achieved, then the economy should pick up speed again in the second half of this year.”
