Politics

Two more Tory terms? Before the party gets too excited, there is work to be done | Katy Balls


When news broke on Friday afternoon that Ben Houchen had been reelected as the Tees Valley mayor with an eye-watering 73% of the vote, the Tory party was in shock. Downing Street aides turned to celebratory drinks, Boris Johnson called Houchen to discuss the size of his majority and ministers started to predict another 10 years of Tory rule.

When the mayoralty first came up, in 2017, the assumption was that Labour would win it; now it’s one of the safest Tory positions in the country. It fits into a pattern emerging from this week’s local elections of the Conservatives not just holding on to support in areas they took from Labour in the 2019 election, but building on it.

It’s for this reason that ministers have taken to referring to Johnson as a “Tory Blair” – the 2019 election was his 1997 moment. It’s not just that they like to see Johnson as riding a new centre ground: they believe that, thanks to his leadership, the Conservative party – like Blair then – has another two general election wins in it.

“This is a new government and we are just beginning,” says a minister. “There is a realignment and it will keep on going. Remember that Blair’s 2001 victory proved the most radical.” Even Tory strategists known for caution say they struggle to foresee a scenario in which Labour wins the next election.

Unsurprisingly a bout of Boris-mania has broken out in the parliamentary party. After a difficult few weeks of negative headlines for the prime minister on Tory sleaze, MPs feel reassured that his brand is firmly intact. Backbenchers have spent the weekend tripping over themselves to praise Johnson for making this possible. One MP goes so far as to argue that the row over who paid for expensive gold wallpaper in the Downing Street flat may have even helped. “People like that Boris is a character,” they contend.

But for all the heady forecasts of Tory wins for years to come, not everyone is on the same page. As more results have come in over the weekend, the picture has become more complicated. The Tories aren’t the only incumbents enjoying success. Welsh Labour held firm despite Tory efforts, Labour metro mayors such as Andy Burnham boosted their vote share, and the SNP enjoyed electoral success in Scotland.

The question some Tories are beginning to ask: is this down to a political realignment or part of a wider political trend in which incumbents across the UK are benefiting from a vaccine bounce and a loosening of restrictions? If it’s the latter, it’s harder to say how long it will last. “My colleagues have very short memories,” says one sceptical MP. “Just six months ago they were all talking about how long [Johnson] would last. Things can change fast.”

There are also results that will give Tory strategists pause for thought. In London Sadiq Khan held on, but with a reduced vote share – an argument not to write the capital off. “It shows that, contrary to the media narrative that the Labour party is most loved in London, it’s not actually that loved, and with the right candidate we could win there,” says one MP in the commuter belt. “If Rory Stewart had stayed on as a candidate, I think he would have won.”

But if Conservatives can find joy in their gains and hope in the capital, it’s the home counties where there is some concern. The Tories suffered losses to Liberal Democrats, Labour and independents in places such as Surrey and Tunbridge Wells and in Cambridgeshire, where the Tory mayor was unseated by Labour in a shock result. “I would have said there is absolutely no way that could happen,” says a bemused Tory. MPs on the ground say the anti-Tory vote has been more organised than usual.

Southern MPs argue that it shows Downing Street cannot take their voters in the south for granted. While Johnson may be shiny and new in the north, in the south there is no such novelty value. “In places where you haven’t had Conservatives in power for a long time, it feels like the beginning of a new government,” says one involved. “But in the south, that isn’t the feeling – it feels like what it is: over 10 years of Tory government.” They say that in order to remedy this, area-specific issues such as concern over planning reform and the impact of new housing need to be taken seriously.

They may be left disappointed when the Queen’s speech is presented on Tuesday. Johnson plans to use the event to prove his commitment to his new voters and the “levelling up” agenda. Bills are expected on a lifetime skills guarantee, bringing jobs to newly Conservative areas and planning reform legislation (an issue that divides MPs in these constituences and shire Tories).

But with his authority boosted, Johnson is in a strong position to choose what he wants to focus on. Those close to the prime minister say he is acutely aware he now needs to focus on delivering policy and reform, which has so far been rather lacking. In a nod to this, he has already revived Tony Blair’s old delivery unit in order to keep his agenda on track.

Johnson allies believe other changes may be needed. There has been a large amount of churn in Downing Street, with his long-serving political secretary, Ben Gascoigne, the latest to go. MPs believe the prime minister needs a senior figure in place with the authority to tell him when he is making a mistake.

Johnson is also under pressure from ambitious MPs to reshuffle his cabinet. Both the prime minister and the chief whip are said to be concerned it could be too disruptive to party management. This result could give him the confidence to press on.

Johnson’s ministers believe this weekend’s results show he will go down in history as a transformational prime minister. He has the votes; in order to deliver the reform he craves, Johnson will need to take another tip from Blair and get the apparatus in place to do so. It’s how he can prove his party’s success is down to more than a vaccine bounce.



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