New manager bounce is worth an extra 0.7 points per game, exclusive Mirror Football analysis has found.
Marco Silva’s time at Everton came to an end earlier this month following the five-two loss to Liverpool in the Merseyside derby.
It was the club’s third defeat in a row and left them with just two wins and a draw from Silva’s last six games in all competitions.
That’s worth the equivalent of just 1.2 points per game.
With Everton in the relegation zone the club decided it was time to act and showed Silva the door.
It’s a similar story at Arsenal too who dismissed Unai Emery after the Spaniard won the equivalent of just 0.7 points per game in his last six matches in charge at the club.
(Image: Action Images via Reuters)
Whoever replaces the two managers will no doubt be hoping to get a bit of the fabled “new manager bounce”, but does it really exist or is it just a bit of a myth?
To find out, the Mirror looked at the records of every Premier League manager who was sacked and replaced during the course of this and the previous five seasons.
The dismissed managers averaged the equivalent of just 0.7 points per game in their last six matches in all competitions, awarding three for a win and one for a draw.
Their permanent or “til the end of the season” replacements averaged the equivalent of 1.4 points per game in their first six matches.
That’s a bounce of 0.7 points per game.
The biggest new manager bounce since 2014/15 was at Leicester City.
Claudio Ranieri averaged the equivalent of just 0.2 points per game in his last six matches in charge of the Foxes.
His replacement, Craig Shakespeare, won all of his first six games in charge, giving them a bounce of 2.8 points per game on average.
Alan Pardew had the next biggest bounce, improving Crystal Palace ’s record from a 0.5 points per game to 2.5 points per game.
Brendan Rodgers lifted Leicester from 0.2 points per game to 2.0 points per game, while Darren Moore took West Brom from 0.0 to 1.8 and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took Manchester United from 1.3 to 3.0.
