Conservative MPs who are retiring at the general election fear Boris Johnson is prepared to sacrifice Conservative seats in southern England with a party manifesto aimed at winning over Labour voters in the Midlands and the north.
Keith Simpson, who is stepping down as Conservative MP for Broadland in Norfolk, said it was “almost impossible” to frame a manifesto that would win over Leave-voting Labour constituencies in the north while fending off a challenge by the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrat party in the south.
Another retiring Tory MP said that colleagues in southern seats who were fighting the December 12 election feared they would be “collateral damage” in Mr Johnson’s strategy to secure a parliamentary majority by seizing seats in the north with a pro-Brexit, big-spending manifesto.
The MP added that during a meeting with Mr Johnson it became clear the prime minister had “written off a lot of the seats where you risk upsetting metropolitan sensitivities”.
But Mr Johnson’s team said the manifesto, expected to be published in the last week of November, would not just be aimed at wooing Labour constituencies in the north, but also defending wealthier Tory seats with small majorities in the south.
“The strategy is very different to last time,” said one ally of Mr Johnson. “At the 2017 election we didn’t have a defensive strategy.”
At that election Theresa May also made a big push to win Labour seats in the north, only to see the Tory vote collapse in Remain-voting areas in the south. She won Mansfield from Labour but ended up losing Canterbury to the main opposition party.
The team writing the Conservative manifesto, led by Munira Mirza from the Downing Street policy unit, has a simple mantra: “Don’t repeat the mistakes of 2017.”
Finalising a manifesto with a hard Brexit message aimed at Labour voters who back leaving the EU while not sacrificing the support of Tory Remainers in the south has been the main source of tension in a complex drafting exercise.
Mr Johnson’s key election campaign message is “get Brexit done”, but to avoid antagonising Remain voters he has dropped previous threats that he would lead the UK out of the EU without a deal if necessary. “We aren’t going to talk about no-deal,” said one Tory adviser.
That has led to questions about what Mr Johnson would do in the event that Britain fails to secure a trade deal with the EU by the end of a proposed Brexit transition period in December 2020.
Mr Johnson has refused to answer the question, repeatedly stating that the UK and the EU both have the will to conclude the trade deal within a year. Many trade experts do not agree with him.
Another big manifesto tension has been around balancing a big expansion of public spending — chancellor Sajid Javid announced plans last week to increase investment by £22bn a year — with some semblance of fiscal responsibility in revised budgetary rules.
Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s key adviser, told Mr Javid he wanted big spending promises to help woo working-class voters, coupled to major tax cuts. “Some people in Number 10 didn’t want fiscal rules at all,” said one senior Tory.
Mr Javid ended up winning that argument against big tax cuts, backed by Tory election chief Isaac Levido, who also insisted that the Conservatives could not win a race with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on public spending.
The chancellor hopes to set out some tax cuts in the manifesto, though his new fiscal rules give him limited room for manoeuvre.
Mr Johnson will have to decide if he wants to focus on tax cuts for low earners, in an effort to seize Labour constituencies in the north. Alternatively, he could dangle the prospect of tax cuts for higher earners to win over traditional Tory voters in the south.
The chancellor’s new fiscal rules, which require a balanced current budget on day-to-day spending within three years, will offer some reassurance to wealthy voters in the south that they are not going to be asked to pay markedly higher taxes to fund improvements to public services.
Unlike Mrs May, whose own attempt to seize Labour heartlands saw her taking an antagonistic stance towards business, Mr Johnson is avowedly pro-enterprise. Referring to entrepreneurs, he said last week: “We don’t sneer at them, we cheer for them.”
On other issues, Ms Mirza is likely to walk a tightrope in the manifesto. A final decision on the future of the contentious High Speed 2 rail line — liked in the north, but unpopular in wealthy Tory seats through which the route passes — will be shelved until after the election.
And a decision on social care funding, which could also put upward pressure on taxes, is also expected to be parked for the time being. “There’s a danger that you have a great idea but it becomes immediately politicised in an election,” said one Tory aide.
Mr Simpson fears that crafting a manifesto that appeals to working-class voters in Wolverhampton but does not scare off Remain voters in Tory seats may ultimately be beyond Mr Johnson and his team.
He compared Mr Cummings to Erich Ludendorff, the German first world war general, over his willingness to sustain casualties in one part of the electoral battlefield — the south — in an attempt to make strategic gains in the north.
