Politics

Tory leadership race live: Liz Truss blames Treasury’s ‘economic orthodoxy’ for UK’s stunted growth


Truss claims her tax cuts would bring inflation down

Back to Liz Truss, and here is a summary of the main points from her interview with Nick Robinson on the Today programme.

  • Truss claimed that “economic orthodoxy” followed by governments over the past 20 years has failed to deliver proper economic growth. (See 9.38am.) The Labour party is also saying that the big problem over the past 12 years has been the UK’s relatively poor performance on growth, although its analysis of why growth has been so weak is not the same as Truss’s. She blamed ideas backed by the Treasury and the Financial Times. Chris Giles, the FT’s economics editor, says he was surprised to learn he’s been running the country – not Truss and her colleagues.

According to @trussliz, the @FinancialTimes has been running UK economic policy over the past 20 years and tax cuts are deflationary

…. both were news to me

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022

  • Truss claimed her tax cuts would bring down inflation. She said: “My tax cuts will decrease inflation.” When it was put to her that most leading economists think they would be inflationary, she cited Patrick Minford as an economist who supports her view.
  • She claimed that the tax increases introduced by Rishi Sunak as chancellor made the UK an international outlier, because no other countries were raising taxes in the current international climate.
  • She rejected claims that her plan to cut taxes was a gamble, because there was a risk tax cuts could leave the government without the income it would need for public services. She said:

What is a gamble is what we’re doing at the moment. What is the gamble is what we’re doing at the moment because, currently, the United Kingdom is projected to head for a recession. So we need to do something different in order to get growth going, in order to put money in people’s pockets.

  • She said she was committed to the extra spending for the NHS promised by Boris Johnson, even though she was also planning to get rid of the health and social care levy that would have funded some of it.

I wanted Boris to carry on as prime minister. I think he did a fantastic job with the 2019 election, winning us a massive majority. He delivered Brexit, he delivered the vaccines.

Regrettably, we got to a position where he didn’t command the support of our parliamentary party.

My judgment was that he admitted that he had made a mistake, or several mistakes, over the course of the last year, but the positive side of the balance sheet was extremely positive.

  • She denied that she was modelling herself on Margaret Thatcher. Asked about claims she copies Thatcher’s photo opportunities, she said: “I am my own person.”
  • She ruled out sending British troops to defend Ukraine. She said:

We are doing all we can to support Ukraine. We’ve led the international coalition on sending weapons, we’re putting the sanctions in place. But I do not support the direct involvement of UK troops.

  • She said she was “wrong” to vote for remain in 2016. She said:

I fully embraced the choice that the people of Britain have made. I was wrong and I am prepared to admit I was wrong. Some of the portents of doom didn’t happen and instead we have actually unleashed new opportunities.

  • She claimed she was someone with “the toughness, the grit” to take on the Whitehall machine and drive through change.
Liz Truss arriving at her campaign office in Whitehall this morning.
Liz Truss arriving at her campaign office in Whitehall this morning. Photograph: Tayfun Salcı/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock

Key events:

Filters BETA

Liverpool council votes to axe elected city mayor post

The role of elected mayor is to be scrapped in Liverpool – despite coming out as the favourite option in a consultation of city residents, PA Media reports. PA says:

At a meeting on Wednesday, the council voted to remove the role of city mayor and replace it with a council leader and cabinet executive.

The change will come in next May when an all-out election is held.

The role of elected city mayor was created in 2012 and held by Joe Anderson until he decided not to stand for re-election last year after his arrest as part of a fraud investigation.

It is currently held by Labour’s Joanne Anderson, no relation to her predecessor, who became the first black female mayor last May.

As well as having an elected city mayor, Liverpool also has a Lord Mayor and metro-mayor of the Liverpool city region, Steve Rotheram.

The council held a consultation with residents to ask whether they would prefer the city to be run by an elected mayor, a committee or a council leader with cabinet.

The consultation was responded to by 11,519 people, which the meeting heard is about 4% of the electorate.

Of those who responded, 40.9% wanted to keep the role of mayor, 32.9% preferred a committee model and 23.6% opted for council leader.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader who is supporting Liz Truss for the leadership, took a swipe at Rishi Sunak’s record in the Treasury when he was on ITV’s Good Morning Britain earlier. Referrring to the Covid bailout packages, he said:

There we were, chucking money out of the Treasury, and some of it was spent rather badly, actually.

The government will send hundreds of drones and anti-tank weapons and scores of artillery guns to Ukraine over the coming weeks to help fend off the Russian invasion, PA Media reports. PA says:

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, announced that counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s existing Soviet-era artillery will follow.

The Ministry of Defence said the weaponry will help bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend against Vladimir Putin’s “indiscriminate” use of artillery.

More than 20 M109 155mm self-propelled guns and 36 L119 105mm artillery guns will be arriving shortly, the MoD added.

In excess of 1,600 anti-tank weapons and hundreds of loitering aerial munitions will also be sent.

The Commons privileges committee has already asked Downing Street to provide a large tranche of evidence relevant to its inquiry into whether Boris Johnson lied to MPs about Partygate. At the lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokeperson was unable to say when No 10 would respond. He told reporters:

As with previous letters from the committee, we will need to consider them and then set our response, this is a formal parliamentary process.

Asked if Johnson intended to co-operate with the inquiry, the spokesperson said:

We have said we will assist the committee in their work but beyond that I will have to repeat again it will need to wait for the formal response.

Liz Truss arrives for a private hustings with Conservative councillors in Westminster this morning.
Liz Truss arrives for a private hustings with Conservative councillors in Westminster this morning. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Chris Giles, the Financial Times’ economics editor, has posted a good thread on Twitter exploring the economic argument set out by Liz Truss in her Today interview this morning. (See 10.38am.) It starts here.

TRUSSONOMICS: a thread

In her interview on @BBCr4today, Liz Truss made 3 economic propositions

1) Her tax cuts will decrease inflation

2) Tax cuts boost growth and prevent recession

3) Tax cuts increase government revenues

It would be great if these were true

1/

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022

And here are his conclusions.

To sum up.

For Trussonomics to work, there needs to be lots of spare capacity at a time of low unemployment and record job vacancies….and for the supply effects of tax changes to outweigh the demand effects

Highly unlikely (but anything is possible)

11/

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022

What is definite is that the UK’s economic institutions do not believe the conditions exist for these three propositions to be true

So Trussonomics is radical. It would involve changing the economic institutions for the experiment to be tried

12/

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022

In an interview with GB News, Liz Truss was asked if she would keep the expensive wallpaper in the Downing Street flat, installed as part of Boris Johnson’s controversial refurbishment, if she became PM. In what is being seen by some as a dig at Johnson, she replied:

I’m not going to have the time to be thinking about the wallpaper in No 10, because we’ve only got two years until the general election – we need to hit the ground running.

“You cannot hope to bribe or twist, thank God! the British journalist,” Humbert Wolfe wrote.

But it’s always worth a try – and at the press gallery in the Commons the Rishi Sunak campaign have been distributing snack boxes for reporters, with a Twix, a can of Sprite and some suncream. A Twix and a Sprite are what Sunak has before he delivers a speech, we’re told.

Sunak snack box
Sunak snack box Photograph: Rishi Sunak campaign
Sunak snack box
Sunak snack box Photograph: Rishi Sunak campaign

In her Today interview Liz Truss would not accept that she was seeking to imitate Margaret Thatcher, insisting she was her own person. (See 10.38am.) But, in an article he has written for the Daily Telegraph, Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor and Truss’s rival for the Tory leadership, described himself as Thatcherite four times. He said:

My values are Thatcherite. I believe in hard work, family and integrity. I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite.

I believe in national sovereignty. Strong borders – tight control of both legal and illegal immigration. The primacy of economic growth. That this can only be achieved on a foundation of low inflation and sound public finances. And the best way to achieve economic growth is cutting taxes and bureaucracy, and boosting private sector investment and innovation. I believe that crime is an evil that we tolerate far too high levels of.

Sunak said in his article he was sure that Truss shared “some of these values” too, but he argued that he was the candidate most likely to beat Labour at the next election.

Truss struggling to win support of Scottish Tories who fear she’s too close to Johnson

Libby Brooks

Libby Brooks

Liz Truss is struggling to win over Scottish Tories, as many fear that a “Boris continuity candidate” will have precisely the same effect that Johnson has done on their ratings.

Amid Partygate allegations, the Scottish Tories plunged to their worst electoral result in a decade in May’s council elections.

Party sources have briefed that Truss, despite her Paisley upbringing and claims to be a “child of the union”, is “too close to Boris”.

Only one MSP – Oliver Mundell – has so far declared his support for her, while former leader Ruth Davidson has written in the Telegraph this morning supporting Rishi Sunak, saying: “Now is not the time to gamble with the nation’s bank balance.”

Both Truss and Sunak have maintained the Downing Street line that they would not grant Holyrood the powers needed to hold a legal referendum.

This morning, the supreme court confirmed that it plans to hear the case on whether the Scottish parliament can hold a legal referendum without permission from Westminster on 11 and 12 October, just after the SNP’s annual conference.

Home Office’s response to growing number of people arriving in small boats ‘poor’, says borders watchdog

The Home Office’s response to the surge in people arriving in small boats across the English Channel is “poor” and the “system is overwhelmed”, a major report by the borders watchdog has said.

In a foreword to the report, David Neal, the independent chief inspector of borders and immigration, said:

The number of small boat crossings in the Channel has reached such a level that it has been described as a crisis and the number one priority for the Home Office.

The volume is unprecedented, and on some days the system is clearly overwhelmed.

The Home Office’s performance in delivering an effective and efficient response to the challenge posed by the increasing volume of migrant arrivals via small boats is poor.

In my judgment, this arises principally from a refusal to transition from an emergency response to what has rapidly become steady state, or business as usual. This refusal permeates every aspect of the Home Office’s response.

Systems, processes and resourcing pathways, which months into the crisis should be routine, codified, auditable and familiar, have been delivered at ‘best effort’. This is not good enough.

Data, the lifeblood of decision-making, is inexcusably awful. Equipment to carry out security checks is often first generation and unreliable.

Extreme operational conditions, where resources are stretched, will inevitably lead to some degradation in data. Staff on the ground are doing their very best, but they are tired.

Here are three journalists and commentators on Liz Truss’s Today interview.

From Paul Mason, the former Newsnight economics editor

If Truss makes good her plan to rip up 20 years of Treasury/Bank of England orthodoxy she will have to scrap the OBR – no way they will sign off the fantasy economics she’s spouting on #r4today

— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) July 21, 2022

From Ian Birrell, a former deputy editor of the Independent

If Liz Truss is going to be honest with people, as she keeps saying, shouldn’t she admit her original warnings about the economic damage from Brexit were right?

— Ian Birrell (@ianbirrell) July 21, 2022

From Kevin Maguire, the Daily Mirror columnist

The Liz Truss criticising 20 years of economic policy will be furious when she realises her party was in office for a dozen of them and she was a Minister for much of that period.

— Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) July 21, 2022

Record rise in UK borrowing costs puts annual deficit on course to top £100bn

A record surge in Britain’s borrowing costs in June, pushed up by soaring inflation, has put the government’s spending deficit on course to reach more than £100bn this year, almost double its pre-pandemic level, my colleague Phillip Inman reports.

Truss claims her tax cuts would bring inflation down

Back to Liz Truss, and here is a summary of the main points from her interview with Nick Robinson on the Today programme.

  • Truss claimed that “economic orthodoxy” followed by governments over the past 20 years has failed to deliver proper economic growth. (See 9.38am.) The Labour party is also saying that the big problem over the past 12 years has been the UK’s relatively poor performance on growth, although its analysis of why growth has been so weak is not the same as Truss’s. She blamed ideas backed by the Treasury and the Financial Times. Chris Giles, the FT’s economics editor, says he was surprised to learn he’s been running the country – not Truss and her colleagues.

According to @trussliz, the @FinancialTimes has been running UK economic policy over the past 20 years and tax cuts are deflationary

…. both were news to me

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022

  • Truss claimed her tax cuts would bring down inflation. She said: “My tax cuts will decrease inflation.” When it was put to her that most leading economists think they would be inflationary, she cited Patrick Minford as an economist who supports her view.
  • She claimed that the tax increases introduced by Rishi Sunak as chancellor made the UK an international outlier, because no other countries were raising taxes in the current international climate.
  • She rejected claims that her plan to cut taxes was a gamble, because there was a risk tax cuts could leave the government without the income it would need for public services. She said:

What is a gamble is what we’re doing at the moment. What is the gamble is what we’re doing at the moment because, currently, the United Kingdom is projected to head for a recession. So we need to do something different in order to get growth going, in order to put money in people’s pockets.

  • She said she was committed to the extra spending for the NHS promised by Boris Johnson, even though she was also planning to get rid of the health and social care levy that would have funded some of it.

I wanted Boris to carry on as prime minister. I think he did a fantastic job with the 2019 election, winning us a massive majority. He delivered Brexit, he delivered the vaccines.

Regrettably, we got to a position where he didn’t command the support of our parliamentary party.

My judgment was that he admitted that he had made a mistake, or several mistakes, over the course of the last year, but the positive side of the balance sheet was extremely positive.

  • She denied that she was modelling herself on Margaret Thatcher. Asked about claims she copies Thatcher’s photo opportunities, she said: “I am my own person.”
  • She ruled out sending British troops to defend Ukraine. She said:

We are doing all we can to support Ukraine. We’ve led the international coalition on sending weapons, we’re putting the sanctions in place. But I do not support the direct involvement of UK troops.

  • She said she was “wrong” to vote for remain in 2016. She said:

I fully embraced the choice that the people of Britain have made. I was wrong and I am prepared to admit I was wrong. Some of the portents of doom didn’t happen and instead we have actually unleashed new opportunities.

  • She claimed she was someone with “the toughness, the grit” to take on the Whitehall machine and drive through change.
Liz Truss arriving at her campaign office in Whitehall this morning.
Liz Truss arriving at her campaign office in Whitehall this morning. Photograph: Tayfun Salcı/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock

Commons privileges committee says Johnson could face recall election if Partygate inquiry were to lead to 10-day suspension

The first report from the Commons privileges committee relating to its inquiry into whether Boris Johnson lied to MPs about Partygate is out – and some of its contents will be worrying for Downing Street.

The committee, which is chaired by the Labour MP Harriet Harman, has not even started the main work on its investigation, but it has published a 39-page report setting out how it will proceed. This shows that the MPs are being exceptionally thorough – which is not surprising because an inquiry of this kind is unprecedented in modern times.

Here are the main points.

  • The committee will seek to take evidence from Johnson and others in public in the autumn. Previously it had said there would be oral hearings, but it had not confirmed that these would be in public.
  • Johnson and other witnesses giving oral evidence will have to give evidence on oath.
  • Johnson could face a recall petition, which could lead to a byelection in his constituency, if the committee were to recommend a lengthy suspension from parliament as a punishment. If an MP gets suspended from the Commons for 10 sitting days or more following a recommendation from the standards committee, the provisions of the Recall of MPs Act can apply. There was some doubt as to whether the same rule would apply if the privileges committee recommended a 10-day suspension, but the committee says legal advice says it does. It says:

Among the documents published today is a formal determination from Commons Speaker Rt Hon Sir Lindsay Hoyle MP, following independent legal advice, regarding the interpretation of the Recall of MPs Act 2015 in the hypothetical event that the privileges committee were to recommend the sanction of suspension.

The Speaker has ruled that the committee of privileges is a committee concerned with the standards of conduct of individual MPs, and therefore any suspension of the requisite length (10 sitting days or 14 calendar days) following on from a report from that committee will attract the provisions of the Recall of MPs Act.

  • The committee says that, even if Johnson did not intentionally lie to MPs about Partygate, he could still be found to have committed a contempt of parliament. It says:

The report also includes a paper from the clerk of the journals, discussing the definition of a contempt in the context of the committee’s inquiry. The committee agrees with the clerk of the journals that the focus of the house’s jurisdiction is on whether or not an action or omission obstructs or impedes or has a tendency to obstruct or impede the functioning of the house, with the consequence that, looking at contempt in broad terms, intention is not necessary for a contempt to be committed. The clerk’s memo explains that while “much of the commentary has focussed on whether Mr Johnson “deliberately” or “knowingly” misled the Committee”, “this wording is not in the motion”.

In her paper, the clerk of the journals adds: “It is for the committee and the house to determine whether a contempt has occurred and the intention of the contemnor is not relevant to making that decision. Intent has been considered relevant when a committee has been considering whether or not there should be penalties for a contempt, or the severity of those penalties”; her paper gives examples of previous cases in which committees have considered intent in the course of assessing the seriousness of the behaviour concerned.

This ruling is bad for Johnson because he has already admitted that some of the comments he made to MPs about Partygate were misleading. The committee is now saying that that could have been a contempt of parliament, even if there was no intention to deceive.

But the committee is only likely to recommend a serious punishment, such as suspension from the Commons, if it concludes the contempt was intentional.

  • The committee says it will apply the “balance of probabilities” standard of proof when deciding whether or not Johnson lied to MPs.
  • It confirms that procedures will be in place to allow whistleblowers to give evidence to the committee without their identity being revealed.

Truss claims ‘economic orthodoxy’ followed by governnments over past 20 years has failed to deliver proper growth

Good morning. Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is now favourite in the contest to be next Tory leader and prime minister and she has just given her first proper broadcast interview of the campaign, to Nick Robinson on the Today programme.

The main division between Truss and Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor and the only other candidate left in the Tory leadership contest, is that Truss is demanding huge, immediate tax cuts now. She says they are needed to jumpstart the economy and avoid recession. Sunak says tax cuts now would be inflationary, and that they should only be implemented when affordable.

What was interesting about Truss’s interview is that she doubled down on her argument, claiming that her approach was needed because the economic orthodoxy accepted by governments of both parties over the past 20 years was wrong. She told Robinson:

The fact is we’ve had economic policy – not just under this government, for the past two decades – there’s been a consensus on our economic policy, and it hasn’t delivered economic growth ….

We have had a consensus of the Treasury, of economists, of the Financial Times, of other outlets, peddling a particular type of economic policy for the last 20 years. And it hasn’t delivered growth …

What I know about the Treasury from having worked there is they do have an economic orthodoxy and they do resist change. And what people in Britain desperately need now is change.

Truss accepted that her plans for tax cuts would cost roughly £38bn a year. But she said they were affordable within the government’s current fiscal rules and, when Robinson challenged her to name a single economist who did not think tax cuts now would be inflationary, she cited one, Patrick Minford. She said she agreed with Minford’s argument, which is that tax cuts would be good for the supply side of the economy (people would have more incentive to work, or set up a business), and that this would reduce inflation.

In her attack on Treasury thinking, Truss was reflecting what Boris Johnson told MPs yesterday as he ended PMQs with advice for his successor.

But she also seems to be following another economic thinker less popular in Tory circles. Robinson put it to her that, if she favoured a big increase in borrowing to revive the economy, she should have voted for Jeremy Corbyn. Truss did not address his point directly, but last night John McDonnell, Corbyn’s shadow chancellor, suggested he agreed with the analysis. He told ITV’s Peston show:

I was then told this idea of borrowing to grow the economy then let it pay for itself is ludicrous … What have we just heard [from the Tory leadership contest is] let’s borrow to grow the economy.

It’s extraordinary they’re repeating my agenda but at the same time, doing it in a way which, to be frank, I think is completely unrelated to the real world we’re living in which is the immediate crisis of the cost of living and climate change.

There was a lot more in Truss’s Today interview. I will post a full summary shortly.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes the latest crime figures for England and Wales.

Morning: Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak hold a private hustings with Conservative councillors from the Local Government Association.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Afternoon: Truss is expected to hold a campaign event outside London.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com





READ SOURCE

Leave a Reply

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.