Tory chiefs warned against complacency after research reveals 40 per cent chance of party winning majority

TORY chiefs were warned against complacency last night after research revealed there is less than a 50/50 chance of Boris Johnson winning a majority.

Detailed analysis of election probabilities by the respected Eurasia Group put the chances of a Tory majority at just 40 per cent.

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And it warned that the prospects of Jeremy Corbyn entering No10 are currently under-priced. It put the chance of a Labour minority government at 30 per cent.

The chances of a Tory minority was put at 20 per cent, while political deadlock where neither party could form a government was forecast at a surprisingly high probability of 10 per cent.

The research means there is just a four in 10 chance of Brexit being delivered by the new deadline of January 31.

Senior Tories said the research exposed the threat the Brexit party poses to Britain’s EU exit.

He warned: “We know we need every vote and nobody can be complacent – a vote for Nigel Farage is a vote for Corbyn.

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“This research should be aimed directly at Nigel Farage and the Brexit party. They have a choice to make – they can either try and win an argument or try and win Brexit.

“If they want to win Brexit then there’s only one party that can deliver it and that’s the Tories but if they spend their time in a furious argument they’ll get Corbyn and they’ll lose Brexit.”

Yesterday it was confirmed that the new Parliament will open Tuesday 17 December – giving the PM just four days before Christmas to pass his Brexit deal if he wins a majority.