Many weeks have so far been billed as crunch weeks for Brexit. But with the revised departure date looming, Theresa May’s proposal looking all-but doomed and the prime minister’s own position openly questioned, the next days really do appear crucial. Here is what could happen and when.
Monday
After a cabinet meeting that is likely to be uncomfortable for May, MPs are due to begin debating the latest Brexit motion tabled by the government at some point after 3.30pm. Again, this is a neutral motion, officially connected to section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act – the bit about gaining parliamentary approval. As with other such motions, it is intended as a vehicle for MPs to table amendments to help shape the process.
Seven amendments had been tabled, the most closely scrutinised of which is one led by Tory MPs Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve. This would mean MPs taking over the business of the Commons on Wednesday to hold a series of indicative votes on a possible way forward for Brexit. Signed by a cross-party selection of more than 120 MPs, it seems certain to be selected by the Speaker.
The Labour front bench has tabled a similar, if less prescriptive version of the amendment, while others seek to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 12 April, or to reaffirm the government’s commitment to Brexit.
Tuesday
If the government does not seek to try to table the third attempt to pass May’s Brexit plan, the day in the Commons is mainly devoted to a bill seeking to maintain reciprocal healthcare arrangements for EU and European Economic Area nations, as well as Switzerland, once Brexit happens.
Behind the scenes, the various Brexit factions of MPs will be seeking to rally their forces for the indicative votes, assuming the Letwin/Grieve amendment has passed.
Wednesday
If the indicative votes amendment has passed – the last time such a plan was proposed it fell by just two votes, and one Conservative MP has since switched sides to sign the new amendment – then the day will be dominated by this process.
It remains to be seen what options could be voted on, and how. Up to seven have been mooted: May’s current deal; departure with customs union membership; Brexit with both a customs union and single market; a Canada-style free-trade deal; leaving with no deal; a second referendum; or revoking article 50 altogether.
It is unclear whether Theresa May would feel it incumbent on her to resign if the vote was lost again – she didn’t when it was lost the first time, by 230 votes, or the second, by 149.
But she has little support left on either wing of her own party, with MPs openly discussing her departure date. She might decide to bow out – but judging by her past record, she might also cling on.
But it will be her choice. Tory MPs have no means of challenging her until December, when the yearlong breathing space she gained from winning last year’s vote of no confidence in her expires.
Each could be voted on in a simple yes/no way or some sort of preference or alternative vote could be used to allow compromise or a ranking of ideas. The hope would be to avoid the outcome of the only previous use of such votes, in 2003, when MPs were presented with seven different options for reforming the House of Lords and could not find a majority of any of them.
With any new set of indicative votes, it would most likely be a free vote, without party whipping, and could be secret, so MPs could choose more freely. But beyond political pressure, there would be no binding effect on May.
Before this happens, there is the small matter of May and Jeremy Corbyn facing each other at prime minister’s questions.
Thursday
Some have pondered whether this could be the day when May puts her deal to MPs for a third time, despite widespread predictions of yet another heavy defeat. This would particularly seem more likely if indicative votes had been held and found that no option could attract a consensus. If May’s deal is then lost by another big margin, this could be the trigger for Conservative ministers and MPs to try and depose her.
Friday
The Commons is not scheduled to sit on Friday – and Brexit, which once seemed set in stone for 29 March, is no longer scheduled either.
