The definition of insanity, Einstein reputedly said, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Yet as the Conservative party leadership contest kicks off this week, several leading candidates’ Brexit strategy boils down to a more robust version of the failed approach that cut short Theresa May’s unhappy premiership. The 120,000 Tory party members who will choose the next prime minister should beware of falling for phoney promises. They risk propelling not just their party but the country towards an even deeper crisis.
The Brexit approach of hardliners such as Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Andrea Leadsom recalls the fabled Briton abroad who believes if only he shouts loudly enough, the foreigners will eventually understand. Through sheer force of personality — or simply not being Mrs May — and putting the no-deal Brexit threat firmly “on the table”, we are told, they will be able to renegotiate the outgoing prime minister’s flawed withdrawal deal. Should that prove impossible, they will walk Britain off the plank on October 31.
Neither outcome is achievable. There is no time to renegotiate. A new premier will arrive in Downing Street only in late July, as MPs and Eurocrats hit the beach. After the holidays, Britain’s party conference season lasts into early October. In Brussels, the European Commission will be in its final weeks before changing leadership.
The EU27, moreover, have repeatedly declined to reopen the withdrawal agreement and its Irish backstop — the biggest bar to parliamentary support for the deal. The Conservatives habitually underestimate Brussels’ determination to ensure Brexit does not reimpose a hard border in Ireland. There is no reason any new prime minister would be granted concessions Mrs May was not. EU leaders are said to be readying a tough statement making this clear at a summit this month.
The one Brexit-related majority the House of Commons has clearly demonstrated, meanwhile, is against a no-deal Brexit. Speaker John Bercow insists no premier will be permitted to force through such a departure against parliament’s will. Any who tried to do so would trigger a grave constitutional crisis. Talk by Mr Raab and others of proroguing, or suspending, parliament is dangerously irresponsible.
A prime minister faced with such a conflict would in reality be forced to call an election — the last thing the Conservatives need. A fresh leader such as Mr Johnson might deliver a boost from the Tories’ dismal European Parliament election performance; Labour is undergoing its own convulsions over Brexit. But, as last week’s Peterborough by-election suggested, Nigel Farage’s Brexit party might still peel off enough Conservative supporters to put Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn in power.
An honest approach would be to acknowledge a further Brexit extension beyond October 31 is inevitable. The withdrawal agreement is unalterable, but the political declaration on future relations with the EU could be reworked and expanded, to agree on a final destination and ensure the Irish backstop is never deployed. A new Tory leader would be in a stronger position than Mrs May to hold cross-party talks on compromises, and find ways to involve the electorate more broadly. Sadly, candidates ready to voice some home truths, such as Matt Hancock and Rory Stewart, are polling worst among party members.
It is a defect of Britain’s unwritten constitution that a few tens of thousands of people will select the country’s next leader. While many crave a swift Brexit, those with a vote in this exclusive ballot should use it wisely.
