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Boris Johnson pledged at the weekend that he will force Brussels to “look into our eyes” and believe that Britain is prepared to leave the EU in a no-deal Brexit.
But while Mr Johnson keeps on ramping up the threat of no deal, there are growing signs of just how difficult it will be to make that threat sound credible.
The biggest problem that Mr Johnson will face (assuming he wins the Tory leadership) is that many Conservative MPs are making clear their determination to block no deal in the Commons.
David Gauke, the justice secretary, said on Sunday that he would resign from the government if he were still a member and the next prime minister were to pursue a no-deal Brexit.
The Times reports that Sam Gyimah, a former minister and one of the original leadership contenders, has said there are “30-plus” Tory MPs looking at legislative options to prevent a no-deal exit and ways to stop the next prime minister from suspending parliament.
Some of those MPs are preparing to launch an early attempt to prevent no deal on the looming October 31 deadline during a Commons debate today on power-sharing talks in Northern Ireland.
According to ITV’s Robert Peston, a plan has been draw up by Dominic Grieve, the senior Tory MP and former attorney-general.
His plan would amend the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation bill), which is due to be debated today, to force the government in October to make an oral statement on the progress of efforts to restore fully devolved government to Northern Ireland.
If the amendment were to pass, it would mean the House of Commons would have to sit in October. That would make it impossible for the new prime minister to prorogue parliament or send MPs home in the days before the October 31 official date that the UK is scheduled to leave the EU.
There is another problem for Mr Johnson. It comes with the growing signs that the UK just won’t be prepared to crash out of the EU on October 31.
Philip Rycroft, the former permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union, tells BBC Panorama tonight that government planning for no deal is in “good shape”.
But Mr Rycroft also warns that no deal is a “step into the unknown” and “fraught with risk”. He tells the BBC: “I think everybody should be worried about what happens in a no-deal situation. We would be taking a step into the unknown.”
Mr Rycroft’s words are worth heeding. He was the principal civil servant in charge of no deal until March. He is also a mild-mannered figure who, in the view of many MPs and civil servants, chooses his words extremely carefully.
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Further reading
Labour could dominate the centre ground and win. But it doesn’t seem to want to
“‘Centrist’ is now second only to ‘fascist’ in the left’s lexicon of hate. But there are still quite a lot of voters who fit this description and are looking for a home: appalled by the small-minded nativism of contemporary Conservatism but unpersuaded by the leftwing populism of Corbyn’s Labour.” (Matthew d’Ancona, The Guardian)
Bad news for Scottish and Welsh nationalists: Brexit strengthens the Union of the United Kingdom (Matt Smith, BrexitCentral)
Ranting Eurosceptics will never be satisfied (Clare Foges, The Times)
Hard numbers
UK productivity contracts for third consecutive quarter
UK productivity fell in the first three months of 2019, the third consecutive quarter of decline, according to official data published on Friday that highlighted a central weakness in the economy since the financial crisis. Read more
