It now appears almost inevitable that the new coronavirus outbreak will soon be identified as a global pandemic. There has been a surge in cases in Iran, South Korea and Italy, and incidents confirmed in numerous countries, in addition to the almost 80,000 cases seen in China. The World Health Organization argues that it is not a pandemic – spreading internationally in an uncontrolled way – because it is cautiously optimistic that China’s outbreak may have peaked thanks to the strict measures adopted by Beijing. Others say this is already a pandemic in all but name.
The WHO’s hesitance may be partly due to its concern about the public reaction, as rational worries combine with limited medical knowledge, xenophobia and broader anxieties. “Using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear,” the WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warned on Monday. As concern spreads, economic effects are growing alongside the human toll. Stock markets have taken a hammering. Airlines are suffering, major international events are being cancelled, and companies dependent on Chinese-made components have halted production.
How much worse could it get? “This might be bad,” the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Tuesday. The word “pandemic” brings to mind the devastation of the Black Death or Spanish flu. But not all pandemics are equal. The term tells us how a disease is spreading, not how deadly it will be. Spanish flu killed up to 100 million people as it swept the globe a century ago. According to one estimate, the 2009 swine flu pandemic killed up to 203,000 people – still lower than the toll linked to seasonal flu in many years.
The impact of a pandemic depends to a great extent on the characteristics of the disease, the capacity of health services, and the response to the outbreak. The new coronavirus appears to be highly transmissible, possibly through asymptomatic carriers, and the WHO has quoted a mortality rate of 2%. But even in China the rate appears to be far lower outside Wuhan, where health services have not been overwhelmed by demand, and where medics had advance warning. Britain has long prepared for a flu pandemic. Other countries, with poor sanitation, struggling health systems and malnourished populations, could pay a far higher price: it is in everyone’s interests to make sure they get the support they need.
Panic and resignation are understandable responses to the declaration of a pandemic, but what is needed is vigilance and sensible action. It would still be possible to slow the disease’s spread, for example through bans on mass gatherings, or advice to vulnerable populations to isolate themselves – allowing more time to train medics, acquire supplies (hit by disrupted production in China as well as by panic-buying) and prepare extra beds, as well as to develop treatments and – hopefully – a vaccine. The priority for the public in countries such as the UK should be good hygiene and the observation of official advice.
