The new week that is now under way will be like no other. Europe is officially the centre of the global coronavirus pandemic. Last weekend saw the imposition of drastic new measures by governments across the continent, with schools, museums, businesses and national borders closed. Gatherings, including major sporting fixtures, have been cancelled and states of emergency declared. In the UK, local elections that were due to take place in May have been postponed. In Italy it was announced that 368 people had died in 24 hours – the worst single-day death toll for any country including China, where the Covid-19 outbreak began in November. Markets around the world have fallen sharply, with the FTSE 100 closing on Monday at an eight-year low.
Boris Johnson’s late afternoon press conference on Monday, and the promise of daily televised briefings, went some way to calm justified fears about his government’s approach to the coronavirus crisis. In a dramatic ratcheting up of official guidance, described by the prime minister as “very draconian”, entire households are now asked to quarantine themselves for 14 days if any member has either of the two key symptoms of a high temperature or continuous cough. Everyone should minimise non-essential contact, work from home if possible and avoid unnecessary travel. Vulnerable groups, including over-70s and pregnant women, should stay indoors for 12 weeks.
Nothing about these instructions could be described as reassuring. A large number of businesses are likely to go bust. But the manner of their delivery, in a public forum, was at least an improvement on the events of last weekend, when the proposal to quarantine over-70s first emerged via an off-the-record briefing with a single journalist. Direct communication by ministers and their officials is the least that the country should expect.
Messaging aside, questions about the government’s strategy will not go away. The idea of building “herd immunity”, rather than preventing infections, has provoked strong criticism from experts as well as alarm among members of the public. And while the government has now announced much stronger steps aimed at preventing infections, its approach is still out of step with much of the rest of the world. Schools in the UK remain open unlike in many other European states.
The World Health Organization reiterated on Monday its view that tests should be at the heart of the official response. Testing, combined with isolation and contact tracing – in order to identify and contain as many clusters as possible – was the strategy pursued in South Korea and other Asian countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked. But the UK is sticking to an approach that requires only people needing hospital treatment to be tested. The twin aims of the plan set out by Mr Johnson and his advisers on Monday are to “suppress the curve” of the Covid-19 outbreak, in order to give the NHS the best chance of coping with those needing treatment, and to shield from infection those groups who are known to be at risk.
This strategy will now be put to the test, as the UK enters what officials described as the disease’s “fast-growth period”. As well as the virus itself there are all its knock-on effects: on employment, education, travel plans, other health issues, social life and income. Panic buying last weekend, as supermarket shelves in many places were emptied, along with closures of theatres and workplaces, have brought the reality of a pandemic sharply home. And while it is tempting to mock as overblown health secretary Matt Hancock’s comparison to the blitz, it is true that the situation we now find ourselves in more closely resembles dystopian fiction than anything most people have experienced.
An exceptionally difficult period lies ahead, one which will be far harder to manage for those already struggling with health or family difficulties, or to make ends meet. With official instructions to avoid social contact, most individuals will turn inward. But as a society, we must do everything in our power – including through public policy – to reach beyond our family circles, and ensure the poorest and loneliest do not bear the brunt.
